Is Russia preparing to test NATO? US warning puts Poland in focus

Russia is once again planning to test NATO resolve through its possible “military provocation” in Poland in coming months as warned by the United States.

According to the US’ multiple warnings, the potential attack on Poland would not be a full-scale invasion as the Russian could not afford to launch the armed attack on a broader scale because of its involvement in the ongoing Ukraine conflict.

The primary motive of the Russian looming attack is to intensify tensions to force Western allies to suspend financial and military aid to Ukraine. Moreover, the country also wants to undermine Poland's sovereignty and depict NATO as a weak defence alliance ahead of a summit scheduled in Turkey on July 7-8.

The US “systematically informs Poland about ever-new Russian plans for a conventional attack on Nato’s eastern flank, from which Poland is by no means excluded”, said a source close to Karol Nawrocki, the Polish president.

Potential military provocation scenarios

According to Onet’s security sources, there are few potential scenarios through which an attack could take place.

The nature of the attack would be “hybrid,” attacking Poland's critical infrastructure through a barrage of missiles and drones. And in worst case scenarios “Russian soldiers could cross the border into Nato territory,” as per US’ warnings.

A small-scale ground incursion by Russian or Belarusian soldiers, possibly framed as an accident for instance GPS failure or a "rescue mission" to test if Poland will negotiate rather than respond with force.

Moscow could also initiate air defense provocations marked by simulated air strikes aimed at forcing Poland to activate its air defense systems. The chances of fueling disinformation are also very high as Russia may try to frame such provocations as the doing of Ukraine, confirmed by the Baltic security source to The Telegraph.

Any ground-based attack would likely be launched from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad or from Belarus to the north of Poland, the site of nuclear weapons.

To counter such armed threats, Poland has recently carried out military exercises. And NATO officials have shown a robust determination that an attack on the eastern flank is a de facto attack on American troops.