Pakistan's default risk plunges: finance adviser

Pakistan has posted one of the sharpest declines in default risk among Emerging Market (EM) economies, said Khurram Schehzad, adviser to the finance minister, on Sunday.

Citing a Bloomberg report in his post on X, Schehzad said that the country recorded a 22% reduction in sovereign default risk over the last 15 months (from June 2024 to September 2025) as measured by CDS-implied default probability.

With the 22% drop, Pakistan ranks just behind Turkiye (28%) in EM rankings in default risk reduction, he added.

This is also the sharpest decline among major EMs, in contrast to rising default risks in countries such as Argentina, Egypt, and Nigeria, among others, he stated.

Schehzad was of the view that the drop in the default risk signalled strengthening investor confidence in Pakistan's economy.

He stated that investor confidence improved following structural reforms, timely debt servicing, staying the course with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, and positive ratings from global agencies.

Pakistan is steadily rebuilding market credibility, Schehzad said, adding that the country was standing out as one of the most improved sovereign credit stories in the EM universe.

The reduction in the default risks comes amid Pakistan's ongoing negotiations with the IMF.

Earlier this month, Minister for Finance and Revenue Muhammad Aurangzeb said that talks with the IMF were heading in the "right direction".

Expressing his satisfaction over the pace of talks with the Washington-based lender, the finance minister said that the government was confident of boosting Pakistan's tax-to-GDP ratio to 11%.