Hundreds of UK schools face closure as birth rate slumps

A sharp drop in birth rates in the United Kingdom has put hundreds of primary schools at risk of closure.

By 2030, the number of young people is expected to decline by more than half a million, putting over 17,000 classes or 1,800 schools at risk.

Due to the birth rate slump phenomenon, primary schools are already having trouble filling their classrooms. The drop in the birth rate was sparked by a baby boom in the early 2000s that began to taper off after 2010.

Once in great demand for additional space, some schools are about to close, especially in London, Yorkshire, Norfolk, Cumbria, Brighton, Wigan, and Bristol.

The crisis will not stop just here as secondary schools may also be affected by this problem. This was evidenced by the 4,000 fewer applications received by London secondary schools this year—a trend that is expected to continue across the country.

The Department of Education predicts that by 2030, a further drop by 98,000 secondary school students, equivalent to 3,266 classes or 92 schools.

The National Association of Head Teachers highlights the significance of keeping schools operating despite these difficulties, even in the face of dwindling student enrollment.

Taking the grim scenario into account, General Secretary Paul Whiteman has called upon the government to provide support by paying heed to the issues relating to the impact of post-pandemic relocations and the housing crisis on school enrollments. "Schools are a crucial part of the fabric of local communities, including in rural areas with few other services. A knee-jerk reaction of rushing to close these schools could backfire in the long term if pupil numbers recover, leading to a shortage of places," said Whiteman.

The National Statistics Office reported a drop in fertility rate by 1.49 children per woman in 2022 which is significantly lower than the 2.1 required for population stability in the absence of major immigration. The drop, being monitored since 2010, has already caused the closure of schools in some areas.

The Department for Education highlights that local authorities and academy trusts need to adjust to changing demographics as the situation develops. The challenge is striking a careful balance between the supply and demand for school spaces so that communities can come up with better solutions in the face of shifting population dynamics.