The chatter about a change in top leadership of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is getting louder by the day. Some party members are proposing to Nawaz Sharif to avoid confrontation with the military establishment, and give the charge of the party to his brother and Chief Minister of Punjab, Shahbaz Sharif.
Nawaz Sharif is fighting a gruelling, prolonged legal battle in the accountability court, and struggling to get his disqualification bar removed through legislation in the parliament. Alongside, his daughter Maryam Nawaz is spearheading an attack on the military establishment.
"There is a possibility of some grouping in the party but creation of a faction will be very hard," says political analyst and senior journalist Mazhar Abbas. He adds that Nawaz will not be able to continue with this ugly confrontation for long, and will have to allow Shahbaz to take charge.
Meanwhile, Shahbaz is sending clear messages to Nawaz to avoid the policy of confrontation and keep the party intact for a possible victory in the next general elections.
Minister for Inter-Provincial Coordination Riaz Hussain Pirzada said in a recent press conference in Islamabad that Shahbaz Sharif should take over the PML-N as "he better understands the people’s issues."
Rumours of Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan working as a secret messenger between the party and the military establishment are also making rounds.
Nawaz loyalists however deny such differences. "It will be hard for Nawaz to lose influence on his party. And, even if he agrees, his daughter Maryam, who is posing to be his successor, will take over," says a senior PML-N member. "Maryam will become a major challenge for Shahbaz and his group."
Though Maryam is facing corruption charges in the accountability court, she is preparing for the next general elections full throttle. She is campaigning actively against the "invisible hands" behind the ouster of her father.
Senior party leaders and former interior minister have clearly declined to accept Maryam as the party leader, despite a considerable amount of support she enjoys within the party. In her presence, Shahbaz Sharif and his son Hamza Shahbaz, known as defecto CM of Punjab, appear to be sidelined from the party activities and campaigns. The latest example is by-poll in NA-120 Lahore, where she spearheaded the election campaign in the absence of her mother Kulsum Nawaz.
In a recent interview, Hamza admitted differences with the party leadership on certain issues.
Many believe that Shahbaz might be able to create a sizable group within the party if Nawaz does not quit the policy of confrontation with the military establishment. However, they say, the real challenge for Shahbaz is within the family -- to counter Maryam who is showing huge political ambitions. The core issue in this battle of succession is whether Nawaz is willing to pass the crown on to his brother or to continue with the dynastical politics through his daughter?
"Though Nawaz would never like to quit, his party is in a more difficult situation than him. And if he quits, apparently, Shahbaz is the only choice for him at the moment," says Mazhar Abbas.