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eighbours Pakistan and Afghanistan signed a ceasefire agreement in Doha on October 18. This was followed by two rounds of talks in Istanbul to finalise the framework for implementing the truce.
However, the Istanbul round concluded “without agreement.” A statement issued by the Foreign Office regarding Pakistan’s talks with the Afghan Taliban regime held in Istanbul said: “Instead of acting upon the core expectation from Pakistan i.e. not to allow Afghan territory to be used for attacks against Pakistan, the Taliban regime has always tried to shy away from taking concrete and verifiable actions. Instead, it has tried to confuse the main issue with other relatively irrelevant and hypothetical issues. By confusing the main issue of terrorism, it keeps trying to develop a narrative that absolves Taliban regime of its commitments and responsibilities towards international community and its own people.”
The statement also said that in the first round of talks, in Doha, “an understanding was reached with Afghanistan on certain principles of cooperation and responsibility. Accordingly, Pakistan agreed to the temporary ceasefire.” The second round of talks in Istanbul was where an implementation mechanism was meant to be devised. “However, the Taliban regime representatives avoided taking any measures on the ground and tried to back out of the commitments they had undertaken at the first round. They also tried to vitiate the environment through accusatory and provocative media allegations and statements,” said the FO statement. The Pakistani side “stayed firm, reiterating its core demand of concrete and verifiable actions against the terrorist elements present in Afghanistan and establishment of an effective monitoring mechanism to curb their activities.”
At the third round in Istanbul, “the Afghan side tried to dilute the focus on the core issue of terrorism and expand the scope of engagement by bringing in hypothetical allegations and unfounded claims,” the statement from the FO said.
To better understand the unfolding situation, The News on Sunday spoke to Azaz Syed, the senior journalist at Geo News, after the capital was once again rattled by a suicide attack. Talking about the reasons behind the breakdown of Pakistan-Afghanistan talks, Syed said, “The reason for the failure is singular: the Afghan Taliban do not want to take any action against the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan. They are unwilling to acknowledge this in writing. Verbally, they might agree, saying, ‘We’ll talk to them, and we are relocating them,’ but they refuse to put it down on paper.”
Syed mentioned that Pakistan, was hopeful at one point that if the Afghan Taliban were not supporting the TTP, “they would issue a fatwa against them. But they stopped short of doing so. The Taliban regime in Afghanistan insists on treating the TTP as muhajireen fighting in Pakistan for Islam. They do not recognise the current governance system in Pakistan as Islamic. Therefore, the TTP men deserve support, just like they supported the Afghan Taliban in their fight against America and its allies.”
“The Afghan side tried to dilute the focus on the core issue of terrorism and expand the scope of engagement by bringing in hypothetical allegations and unfounded claims,” the FO said.
Syed said, “In my conversations with the Afghan Taliban and officials from their government — and these have been ongoing — they have consistently used the word muhajireen in private discussions. This is self-explanatory: they do not want to take action against the TTP, believing possibly that just as they have occupied Kabul and raised their flag, the TTP will one day raise the ‘flag of Islam’ in Islamabad.”
In the context of the current approach of Pakistan’s security establishment towards Afghanistan, TNS asked if there had been a shift from engagement to deterrence. For Syed, the difference in Islamabad’s approach toward Afghanistan and the Taliban was “that we have begun to react to violence. If there is violence against Pakistan, the state will respond by striking back, by taking action. That marks a change, but engagement remains in place.”
Syed said that there was strong evidence that engagement between the two continues. “Officially speaking, Pakistan’s ambassador is still stationed in Kabul, and Afghanistan’s ambassador here. The only change is that we have begun to react (to violence),” he states.
Have the internal politics in the two countries, beyond security, played any role in the breakdown of talks? Syed doesn’t believe so. “The domestic politics in Pakistan and Afghanistan have no real influence on their foreign policies. Afghanistan’s foreign policy is formulated in Kandahar by Akhundzada; Pakistan’s foreign policy is shaped in Rawalpindi, so domestic politics do not play a role.”
Syed stated that some of the groups within the Taliban are anti-Pakistan. These include the followers of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and Mullah Yaqoob. The policy drafted by Pakistan’s establishment enjoys the support of the country’s major political parties. Meanbwhile, Pakistan-Afghanistan trade remains around $6 billion. It’s a substantial amount.”
TNS asked Syed whether he saw a realistic diplomatic off-ramp or third-party mediation to revive the talks. He said Iran had offered to play a role. Turkiye and Qatar have already hosted talks. “A Turkish delegation, including the defence minister and the intelligence chief, is set to arrive in Islamabad, as announced by President Erdo an… The issue is not who else is trying to mediate. Ultimately, we are the ones who will have to live with the outcome.”
For Syed, mediation can only go so far. “The real question is whether we are willing to sit together. I don’t think the Taliban are being realistic in this regard. The international community will have to pressure them,” he said.
Following the recent attack in Islamabad, Syed said, there was an apprehension that a long chain of similar incidents may follow. “A faction of the TTP claimed responsibility for the attack in Islamabad.
“What remains to be seen is whether the violence will escalate further and if the militants will push toward the Punjab. That will determine how things unfold.”
The writer is ajournalist andcommunicationsprofessional currently serving as manager at the Centre forExcellence inJournalism, IBA Karachi. She can be reached on X:mariaamkahn