| A |
failed covert operation recently may have revealed a dangerous intent to manufacture a fictional aggression - providing a chilling blueprint for how a military confrontation can be engineered.
The confession of a detained fisherman points to a plan to smuggle Pakistani Navy uniforms and some forged documents. There was apparently an attempt to orchestrate a fictional attack by Pakistani military. Some security analysts say the objective was to create ‘evidence’ India could use to justify a military strike against Pakistan.
There is indication that New Delhi has been working to manufacture credible justification for limited military action against Pakistan. The work may have commenced on October 20, with the Indian PM‘s Diwali address to the armed forces delivered aboard the INS Vikrant, where he descried the Indian Navy as the “guardian of the Indian Ocean.” The Indian naval chief then went on to say, “If the need arises, the opening will be done by the navy.” Defence Minister Rajnath Singh threatened “widening the Sir Creek conflict to the sea and the coastal zones.”
This represents a fundamental doctrinal shift towards a maritime-forward strategy to claim the status of an unchallenged sea power. Rear Admiral Syed Faisal Ali Shah (retired) of Pakistan Navy considers this the threat of a credible “naval-first strike.“
The statements were followed by large-scale exercises and deployments across Gujarat, Rajasthan and the Arabian Sea. “The creek operations and integrated tri-service manoeuvres during Exercise Trishul demonstrated India’s tri-service synergy and operational readiness in multi-domain warfare scenarios,” he says. “They are not symbolic drills. The scale of supporting activity, including extensive NOTAM zones, large amphibious task groups and mobilised warships and aircraft appears to be full-spectrum rehearsal for naval and amphibious escalation.”
Admiral Shah says that India’s new doctrine favours high-impact options to create a casus belli. “The Indian Navy might stage a mock operation. They could fabricate a narrative of an operation on India’s own territory. A special forces unit could simulate an assault on their side of the Sir Creek, fabricating footage of Pakistani posts. This could be designed to project a false victory to a key electoral constituency.” “Some politicians may see this as a low-risk, high-reward gambit,” he says. “They could create a potent visual spectacle for their home audience—a made-for-TV ‘victory’ without ever crossing into our territory.”
Another scenario could be by using Pakistan Navy, Marines and Rangers uniforms, mobile SIMs and currency to fabricate cross-border ‘aggression’ of some sort. The fake evidence could be meant to implicate Pakistan and provide India the pretext to strike and claim self-defence. This could set the stage for a dangerous escalation.
Sir Creek, according to some experts, is the perfect stage for deception. The area is crowded with civilian boats, hard to monitor and full of blind spots.
Sir Creek, some experts say, is the perfect stage for deception. The area is crowded with civilian boats, hard to monitor and full of blind spots. In the immediate aftermath of an event, the governments could trade accusations forever. Independent verification will likely take weeks. Meanwhile, conflict could escalate long before the truth is established, says Lt Gen Naeem Khalid Lodhi (retired), the former defence secretary. “A staged incident could trigger a huge global economic disruption. Forced rerouting of shipping might drive up war-risk premiums and freight costs, causing energy and commodity prices to spike worldwide and severely impacting international supply chains,” he says.
Gen Lodhi says that India’s pride and ambition to be the net security provider in the Indian Ocean region were “wrecked” in the May conflict. He says this represented a “global setback” that India finds difficult to live with. Its leaders are desperately looking for a justification to launch an attack on Pakistan. He pointed out that India has signed new defence deals with the US, for hardware and technology support.
This desire for a strategic comeback is held in check by a sobering military reality. This reality is defined by a stark strategic calculus, which Rear Admiral Faisal argues the Indian Navy must have conducted ahead of the May conflict. Rear Admiral Faisal argues that the Indian Navy must have conducted a strategic cost-benefit analysis on any offensive action against Pakistan. He posits that they concluded that the odds were stacked against them and that an engagement would have had a prohibitive cost. This assessment would have found convergence with the political leadership. “Six months on, whether in November (now) or beyond, this cost analysis remains unchanged and continues to favour Pakistan,” he says.
Reflecting on the Indian Navy’s performance during the May conflict, Rear Admiral Shah says they initially deployed the aircraft carrier, INS Vikrant, near Pakistan’s maritime boundary, supported by other naval assets. “Our forces were monitoring the strike group, observing the actions of the Indian Naval Western Command,” he says. However, he notes that the situation changed later. “When the PAF shot down seven Indian jets and our army rained Fatah missiles on 24 Indian military command and control centres on May 6-7, INS Vikrant disengaged and headed towards the safety of the Indian Western Command by May 10.”
“This withdrawal proved strategically significant. The Indian political establishment is now investing its hopes in the navy.
“The exposure has effectively turned a covert strategy into a public liability, revealing India’s desperation and inviting greater international scrutiny,” says Lt Gen Lodhi. “The underlying threat necessitates a sustained state of alert. This successful neutralisation of the threat was achieved through Pakistan’s timely interception and documentation of the RAW’s Thatta Operation. This action not only neutralised a key tactical asset but also provided the international community with verifiable evidence for scrutiny,” Lt Gen Lodhi says.
The writer is a senior The News staffer in Karachi.