The fragile ceasefire agreed upon in Doha on October 19 is holding. However, it has done little to ease Pakistan’s concerns about terrorism emanating from Afghan soil. Islamabad continues to insist on firm commitments to dismantle militant sanctuaries. Regional powers like China are closely monitoring the situation.
The Taliban’s failure to project credibility abroad is a direct consequence of their failures at home to set up a broad-based government. The narrow, Pashtun-dominated system, threatens to alienate other ethnic groups. This governance crisis is exacerbated by Afghanistan’s profound diversity. While Pashtuns are a majority, Tajiks, Hazaras and Persians make up large minorities.
Recent border clashes involved cross-border firing, airstrikes and artillery exchanges. They resulted in hundreds of deaths, including the martyrdom of 23 Pakistani soldiers. “Precision strikes” by Pakistani forces in Kandahar and Kabul were followed first by a ceasefire and then Doha talks.
In a statement that appeared to avoid a clear pledge, Afghan spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid that “they will not support groups carrying out attacks against the government of Pakistan.” Later in the day, he also said the Islamic Emirate had had a consistent policy of not allowing Afghan soil to be used against any other country.” Framing their stance as a general policy rather than a specific pledge to address Islamabad’s concern regarding the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, appeared to be calculate to avoid making commitment to dismantle TTP safe havens or extraditing militants. Such ambiguity allows the administration in Kabul to maintain influence over such groups without openly violating the agreement.
Commenting on the Mujahid tweet, Ambassador Naghmana Hashmi said it was not “good enough.” She argued that genuine seriousness on the part of Afghan Taliban would require them to “either expel or eliminate the militants.” As a sovereign entity, she said, the Taliban bear the fundamental responsibility to address such issues. However, the Kabul regime has been similarly non-committal in its assurances to China. “China pushed back against their vague, watered-down language in statements that avoids resolute promises. It firmly rejected any proposals to relocate East Turkestan Islamic Movement fighters away from its borders, seeing it as a half-measure that could still threaten Xinjiang’s stability.”
Previously, the Pakistani forces had limited retaliation against cross-border TTP attacks to strikes along the border. On October 11, however, precision strikes were also made in Kandahar and Kabul.
Ambassador Hashmi says, “Islamabad wants friendly relations with the Taliban regime but will not tolerate Afghanistan being used as a launch pad for attacks on its territory. This is the core demand.” Some analysts doubts whether the Taliban will honour the pledges made in Doha. “The TTP must disarm. This process must be closely watched and independently verified to confirm the terrorists are fully disarmed,” says Hashmi.
In a statement that appeared to sidestep a clear pledge, Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed that “they will not support groups carrying out attacks against the government of Pakistan.” Later in the day, Mujahid said that Afghan soil will not be allowed to be used against any other country.”
Lack of decisive action against the TTP risks isolating Kabul and creating prolonged instability. The prospect has dismayed regional powers in the SCO. “Against this backdrop, it is not entirely implausible for some SCO members to forge an alliance to address the militant threat militarily,” Ambassador Hashmi said. Islamabad may also be forced to make a kinetic response to TTP action routine, she said.
Ambassador Hashmi said India’s engagement with the Taliban-led government appeared to be aimed at pressuring Islamabad. The Taliban’s policy, she said, reflected a calculated yet risky strategy. They were seen sidesteping Islamabad’s legitimate concerns while leveraging their position for strategic gain. Afghanistan is heavily dependent on Pakistan for trade. Excessive provocation could jeopardise its own stability. Thus, they have to carefully calibrate the level of tension to maintain a delicate balance.
The creation of a reliable system to disarm and neutralise the TTP remains a tough task. The Afghan border is highly porous and hard to control. Islamabad has already done a lot to secure the border so that more than 95pc of border posts are staffed and monitored. “The big question is whether the Afghan Taliban are willing and able to help, using their own forces to block TTP activities along the border,” says former ambassador Abdul Basit. There has been talk about involving neutral countries like Qatar or Turkey to help oversee this process. While these nations are trusted allies their ability to help with this specific issue might be limited.
Basit suggests that China may be a better choice. China’s influence and interest in regional stability could help the process. China is also wary of a potential US return to Afghan territory, particularly to Bagram Air Base that could undermine its regional objectives. Engaging China in a cooperative framework could address its concerns and contribute to a regional stability.
The TTP is a unique threat. It should be seen as separate from both the Afghan people and the Taliban. We need to keep emphasising this difference in our messaging, says Basit. Ultimately, the policy must acknowledge that the destinies of Pakistan and Afghanistan are intrinsically linked. This reality manifests in two key areas: security and economics. On one hand, fighting the TTP requires a localised strategy. On the other, the reopening of the Afghan Transit Trade shows that economic pain or prosperity is also shared.
The reopening of the Afghan Transit Trade is a good sign. It shows that both sides understand that a shutdown hurts everyone. The destinies of both countries are intrinsically linked, says Basit. Despite its geostrategic location and deep-sea ports, Islamabad has been unable to have fruitful commercial, economic relations with Central Asian states. Uzbekistan has rail track up to the Afghan border to connect to Karachi and Balochistan’s ports. Only a stable, friendly regime in Kabul can bring regional stability and prosperity.
The ceasefire is a tentative step. The vague assurances and Taliban’s failure to address Islamabad’s security concerns highlight the fragility of current efforts. Islamabad’s precision strikes on October 11 and its call for verifiable TTP disarmament underscore its resolve to defend its territory and citizens. Moving forward, a comprehensive approach—combining diplomatic pressure, regional alliances with powers like China, and empathy for the Afghan people—can counter the TTP threat. This can unlock the region’s economic potential and foster regional stability and prosperity.
The writer is a senior The News staffer in Karachi.