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fter two weeks of ruination in the Punjab, flood water descended to Sindh in mid-September. A high flood of over 635,000 cusecs crossed the Guddu Barrage. After two fleeting high-flood surges in August, this time, a flow of over 500,000 cusecs was sustained at Guddu for several days. A surge in the water level at Guddu, subsequently increased flows at Sukkur and Kotri Barrages. The floodplain, locally called katcho was inundated and more than 175,000 people were temporarily displaced.
Sindh averted an anticipated monstrous flood of over 900,000 cusecs. Some projections of the National Disaster Management Authority had initially warned of a mind-blowing flood of over 1.3 million cusecs at Guddu. Swollen rivers in the Punjab prompted the provincial government to take urgent precautionary measures. The spook of the 2022 flood continues to haunt Sindh as the province has not fully recovered from a biblical calamity that affected over 14.5 million people, including 12 million who were rendered shelterless.
Sindh, having a flat terrain with a meagre north to south gradient of only eight inches per mile, is vulnerable to a variety of floods. The Indus runs through the middle of the province. It is a vital source of agriculture-rich economy and also a pathway of devastating floods. Being located in the delta of the Indus River system, Sindh receives flows of all tributary rivers traversing through mountains and plains of the Indus basin. For the very reason, three barrages of the province were designed with highest capacity of flows. Sukkur and Guddu were designed to safely pass flows of over one million cusecs. On its western fringe, Sindh is vulnerable to pluvial floods generated by gushing hill torrents descending from Kirthar Hills and Koh-i-Suleman Range. In 2022, flash floods from Kirthar Hills routing from Balochistan had unleashed a calamity in the right bank districts of the province. In 2010, the Indus was expected to fetch a manageable flow of about 700,000 cusecs at the Guddu Barrage. But that flow was augmented by unanticipated torrential flows from the Koh-i-Suleman Range, turning it into an epic flood.
A sizeable population settled in the katcho area was forced to leave their abodes as water levels rose from Guddu to Kotri Barrages.
An unconventional source of flood in Sindh is the malfunctioning mega drainage projects: the Left Bank Outfall Drain and the Right Bank Outfall Drain. These drains are ignominious engineering failure inflicted on the province due to poor planning by the WAPDA. Not only have these drains obstructed several natural waterways but their main channel and feeder drains also cause floods due to breaches and backflows. Additionally, the province frequently encounters urban flooding in big cities such as Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Larkana and Nawab Shah. A derelict and inadequate drainage network brings many neighbourhoods in these cities under a sheet of water during intense rain spells. Most cities in the province lack storm water drains and their sewerage conduits lack capacity to absorb heavy downpours in addition to sanitation of a burgeoning population.
This year, Sindh was bracing for a super flood of over 900,000 cusecs, the like of which was last experienced 15 years ago. Flows in Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej Rivers witnessed multiple surges during August and September as India was continuously receiving heavy rains. Three of its big dams were already full, spilling water to downstream areas. Indian Punjab also endured a rare flood disaster. Consequently, plains of the Pakistani Punjab were getting inundated as the Indian dams were unable to absorb a series of flood spates. A flabbergasted Punjab administration was struggling with the rivers, resorting to complex decision of controlled breaches to save vital infrastructure and populated town centres. Over half a dozen controlled breaches and several inflicted by boisterous river flows unleashed a deluge in hundreds of villages in the province. The Punjab experienced a tormenting month where more than 4.5 million people—mostly in rural areas—lost their abodes, crops, animals, granary and paltry assets. The badly bruised province is now struggling to recover from this awful trauma. Amidst the havoc, vast plains of the province were covered under a sheet of water. After defiling over 4,700 villages, the flood flows converged at the Punjnad Barrage before heading towards Sindh.
In Jamshoro district alone, 15 major private housing schemes have either been completed or are under construction on protected forest land. In neighbouring Hyderabad, at least seven housing projects have been developed within the Indus River’s floodplain.
An anxious Sindh took a sigh of relief as the flood had already vented much of its spleen upstream. Nevertheless, a sizeable population settled in the katcho area was forced to leave their abodes as water levels rose from Guddu to Kotri Barrages. As flood was ravaging the Punjab, the provincial authorities got ample time to swing into action. Targeting a potentially affected population of 1.6 million people, the provincial government acted timely and had a rescue and relief plan. Some 45 vulnerable points were identified and precautionary arrangements were put in place. In 2022, the administration was caught unguarded by the abnormal rains and it had miserably failed to tackle the water blitz early. It was sheer luck that the Indus River was sluggish and hill torrents were lethargic when peak approached the province this year. Coinciding inflows from these two sources could have tested the barrages and embankments of Sindh.
Sindh narrowly survived a perilous flood. The province has a history of maleficent floods. It should have a comprehensive plan to combat it. Rescue and relief arrangements are part of post-flood response. Preparedness is a weak link in the province’s flood response. Natural waterways are clogged; urban drainage is dilapidated; embankments of canals and distributaries are unkempt; and floodplains are heavily encroached by illegal zamindara bunds, cropland and sprawling settlements. Vulnerability to flood disaster persists in the province.
The writer is a civil society professional. He can be reached at nmemon2004yahoo.com.