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ew people, only a few months ago, may have imagined the state of relations between President Donald Trump of the United States and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India today. Of course, in international relations, there are no permanent allies or enemies, as was famously pointed out by Henry John Temple, the 3rd Viscount Palmerston, also known as Lord Palmerston, who served twice as Britain’s prime minister: “We have no eternal allies,” he had said, “and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.”
We are reminded that in international affairs optics are key. In his latest tweet, President Trump has again assailed India: “Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!”
This spiralling down of relations between two populist leaders can be viewed through state- as well as personal-level lenses. President Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on India in April, followed by another 25 percent in August for buying, refining and exporting Russian oil. This makes it one of the steepest he has imposed on any country. Now, according to some reports, he is urging the European Union to impose 100 percent tariffs on China and India in an effort to pressure Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Penalties in the form of tariffs are Trump’s way of pressuring India to stop purchasing oil and weapons from Russia.
On a personal level, President Trump and Premier Modi have enjoyed close terms during Trump’s first presidency. One can recall the Howdy Modi spectacle of 2019 and the grand affair President Trump’s state visit to India was made into. But then, Biden happened and most people can recall the bear hugs the Indian premier gave him.
Then came the four-day conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025. President Trump repeatedly claimed to have brokered a peace deal between the nuclear-armed archrivals. That apparently hurt the Indian premier’s feelings. Furthermore, the US president went on to host Field Marshal Asim Munir.
President Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on India in April, followed by another 25 percent in August for buying, refining and exporting Russian oil, making it one of the steepest he has imposed on any country. Now, according to some reports, he is urging the European Union to impose 100 percent tariffs on China and India in an effort to pressure Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Penalties in the form of tariffs are Trump’s way of pressuring India to stop purchasing oil and weapons from Russia.
In a recent op-ed for The Financial Times, Peter Navarro, the White House counsellor for trade and manufacturing, wrote, “before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Russian oil made up less than 1 per cent of India’s crude imports. Since then, daily imports have soared to more than 1.5 million barrels — more than 30 per cent of India’s total. To be clear, this surge has not been driven by domestic oil consumption needs.” He went on to point out the ‘refining trade’ and that “The proceeds flow to India’s politically connected energy titans, and in turn, into Vladimir Putin’s war chest.” He mentioned in the piece, titled India’s Oil Lobby is Funding Putin’s War Machine — That Has To Stop, that “India acts as a global clearinghouse for Russian oil, converting embargoed crude into high-value export while giving Moscow the dollars it needs.”
Viewed from a Cold War lens, India’s foreign policy has been a delicate balancing act of nonalignment. New Delhi was careful not to align itself with either the capitalist or the communist bloc. It claimed “strategic autonomy,” avoiding over-reliance on any single country at the expense of another.
In the past three decades, relations between the US and India have warmed significantly. India, meanwhile, continued to do business with Russia. For that matter, the European Union was getting around 19 percent of its natural gas imports from Russia.
An expert has noted however that for the US, alliances are less about partnership and more about client relationships.
States may recalibrate. Their leaders and their emotions go through many phases. With populist leaders, the outcomes can often be unpredictable. PM Modi is trying to appease the US. He recently said ties with the United States remained “very positive,” and “Deeply appreciate and fully reciprocate President Trump’s sentiments and positive assessment of our ties.”
President Trump’s messages on digital platforms keep the unpredictability curve reaching new highs and lows. After stating that India had been lost to deep, darkest China, he went on to post about the “special relationship” between the US and India, and that “I will always be friends with Modi.”
The writer, acommunicationsprofessional at IBA Karachi, holds a master’s degree in international relations. Her writingfocuses on globalaffairs, climate change and culture.She can be reached on X: mariaamkahn