| I |
n today’s shifting global landscape, a new possibility is emerging in South and Central Asia: a new bloc comprising China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. If realised, such a coalition could not only bring peace to one of the world’s most volatile regions but also tilt the balance of global power away from the West.
At the heart of this vision lies a resolution of the Kashmir dispute. The decades-old conflict has kept India and Pakistan locked in hostility. Governments in both countries appear to cling to the belief that one day they might secure full control over the territory. Such aspirations are unrealistic. Under present circumstances neither side can expect to annex all of the state. A more practical solution may be for both countries to retain the territories they currently administer while allowing Kashmiris greater liberty to travel and trade freely across the Line of Control.
Such an agreement, however difficult, could open the door to greater economic cooperation. Formal trade between India and Pakistan is currently at a historic low. Bilateral trade, which stood at $2.41 billion in 2017-18, was down to about $1.2 billion in 2024. During April 2024-January 2025, India’s exports to Pakistan were valued at $447.7 million and Pakistan’s exports to India barely $420,000. If relations normalise, experts estimate that trade could easily reach $20 billion annually. It could encompass pharmaceuticals, textiles, chemicals and agriculture. For two nations struggling with unemployment and inflation, such economic integration could prove transformative.
China and Russia are well placed to help India and Pakistan move toward a settlement. Beijing maintains close ties with Islamabad while enjoying growing trade with New Delhi. It has long advocated dialogue and peaceful settlement. Moscow, historically aligned with India and often protective of its interests at the UN, has recently signaled interest in creative solutions. Russian policy experts have even floated the idea of a loose Indo-Pakistan Confederation that would prioritise economic cooperation while maintaining sovereignty. If China and Russia align on mediation, this could create the momentum for peace where bilateral negotiations have repeatedly failed.
Beyond India and Pakistan, Afghanistan is a critical link in the emerging bloc. Long a victim of instability, the country now stands at the crossroads of integration. In 2025, Afghanistan and Pakistan restored ambassador-level ties. Kabul has also signalled its willingness to participate in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China has granted Afghanistan zero customs duty on 98 percent of its exports, giving Afghan businesses direct access to one of the world’s largest markets. In 2023, Afghanistan exported $33.9 million worth of goods to China and a Chinese oil company signed contracts worth $150 million, with investments expected to rise to $540 million by 2026.
China and Russia are well placed to help India and Pakistan move toward a settlement. Beijing maintains close ties with Islamabad while enjoying growing economic relations with New Delhi. It has long advocated dialogue and peaceful settlement. Moscow, historically aligned with India and often protective of its interests at the UN, has recently signaled interest in creative solutions.
Major infrastructure projects add to Afghanistan’s potential. The Khyber Pass Economic Corridor, funded at $482 million by the World Bank, will modernise trade routes between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The proposed Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan Railway, estimated at $4.8 billion, could cut transit times for cargo by nearly five days, creating a direct overland link between Central and South Asia. Afghanistan’s integration into regional trade and infrastructure could also help curb cross-border militancy.
The dividends of such cooperation are great. China could secure expanded markets in South Asia, strengthening its Belt and Road Initiative. Russia could reinforce its relevance in Asia while reducing reliance on Europe. India could lower its defence spending and redirect resources toward domestic growth. Pakistan could benefit from expanded trade and secure infrastructure. Afghanistan could transition from isolation to joining a vital trade corridor.
The ripple effect would be global. The bloc will represent almost 3.2 billion people — around 40pc of the world’s population. Such a coalition will not only strengthen regional stability but also offer an alternative to US-centred global order. For decades, Washington has used its military and economic dominance to shape international outcomes. A multipolar system, powered by this Asian bloc, could lend weight to alternative voices in addressing pressing global crises, from climate change to conflicts like Palestine.
Sceptics may argue that mistrust, rivalry and competing ambitions make such a bloc unlikely. The hostility between India and Pakistan, Afghanistan’s fragmented politics and the differing global strategies of China and Russia remain serious obstacles. Yet history is full of examples where bitter rivals have eventually found common cause. Europe, once divided by centuries of war, built the European Union on the promise of shared prosperity. The same logic could apply in Asia, where economic necessity may eventually trump political hostility.
The idea of an Asian bloc linking China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan is more than just a dream. It represents a roadmap to peace, prosperity and regional self-reliance in an era of shifting global power. The question is whether the leaders of these nations will have the vision and courage to seize this historic opportunity.
The writer is aworking journalist.He can be reached at zaheerlhrgmail.com