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e live in a flood plain. Our alluvial soils are deep layers of rich geological deposits, thanks to the floods. The early inhabitants learned to live with floods in harmony with nature. Modern irrigation and agriculture have substantially altered the natural landscape. Resultantly, the floods face obstructions leading to losses. The cyclic pattern of rain is also not new but we have certainly created conditions for faster glacial melts and cloud outbursts due to exceptional rise in global temperatures (global warming).
I have written twice on the subject in this space. This time, I am attempting to explore different dimensions.
As per the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan is among the five countries most vulnerable to climate change. We clearly lack climate adaptation, preparedness and mitigation strategies. Renaming the Environment Division as Climate Change Ministry has made no substantial difference.
The World Bank and the UN pledged over $9 billion to Pakistan in 2022 to compensate the irreversible economic and non-economic losses. Yet, it could not get the loss and damage fund floated during the COP due to lack of bankable projects. Though funds were provided for recovery and reconstruction, Pakistan did not prepare well for worse effects and resilience or self-reliance.
Instead of looking for LDF and loans, we have to prepare to combat repeated disasters. The role of the Environment Protection Agency, the National Disaster Management Authority, the Provincial Disaster Management Authorities and National Action Plan for climate disasters needs to be revisited and strengthened. Simulation and sharing of large-scale datasets of local and global agro-ecosystems and zones can provide pathways for climate action and food security. Voices can be raised for global climate finance and equity in COPs, provided that we are prepared. We are a signatory to international agreements on climate change and SDGs (promising to achieve zero hunger). We are also obliged to act to meet the Nationally Determined Contributions.
The Three Gorges Dam in China was conceived as a flood prevention work. It has created water, food and energy security as well as a booming tourism industry. The Yangtze River floods in China have been permanently stopped. This could be a good time to revive the debate on the Kalabagh Dam. Instead, there is more news about the contentious RUDA.
Long-term climate adaptation and mitigation requires water saving and prevention of emissions (nitrous oxide and methane). Nitrous oxide pollution from farmlands is a direct outcome of inefficient nitrogen fertiliser use. A lack of legumes in the crop rotation is also a major cause of concern. We import GM soybean worth a billion dollars a year but we are refusing to allow the cultivation of the same. GM wheat has been engineered to make it capable of fixing atmospheric nitrogen. Heat and drought resistant GM crops are in commercial use. Our denial of science (Biosafety Committee at the Climate Change Ministry) is beyond imagination.
A major source of methane emission is puddled rice. Technologies have been perfected to replace puddling for nursery transplantation with direct seeding of rice in dry beds that saves water and restricts methane emission.
We have had major floods in 1958-1959, 1974-1975 and 1987-1988 and every year since 2010. However, there has been hardly any effort to build resilience. The NDMA and the PDMAs are designed for emergency response. The rescue operations are followed by government-sponsored and philanthropic relief efforts. The rehabilitation is usually slow and on self-help basis.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has reported losses of over 661 km of roads, 234 bridges, 4,700 houses, 5,400 livestock and thousands of lives. (A Buner village alone has had 237 causalities). The Punjab has been spared major loss of human lives but losses to crops and livestock have been high.
In Pakistan, 45 percent of the population is below the poverty line and more than 40 percent are malnourished. The recurrent floods have aggravated the plight of the poor and the dispossessed. The flood geography has been changing since 2010. The 2025 floods are widespread. With vast lands submerged and millions dislocated, the floods in the three rivers threaten food security in the months to come.
The stagnant wheat market for the last 16 months has spiked since the arrival of flood forecast. This trend will most likely continue till the next harvest. This is deplorable to say the least because a quick jump from Rs 2,200 to Rs 2,800 has not helped any farmer. Money is being made only by hoarders and traders. This will hurt ordinary people.
The 2022 floods in Sindh had left deep scars. Now, the challenge is far greater. Two provinces are already affected. There is fear that Sindh may also be affected as the combined water of all rivers flows down Panjnad.
One has seen struggling small holders slowly return to normal since 2022. The Sindh government has experienced difficulties in dealing with the revival. There was an international call for help, which was a limited success. The affected reeled through difficult times on their own. The usual home saving grains (a majority practice) in the bins was washed away. Livestock was either dead or sold at throw away prices to tide over the difficult times.
This is happening now in the flooded districts of the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, one must appreciate the emergency rescue efforts by the provincial governments. The relief ought to be swift. The rehabilitation phase has yet to come.
Large swaths of arable land in Narowal, Sialkot, Gujrat, Hafizabad, Chiniot, Jhang, Faisalabad, Toba Tek Singh, Bahawalnagar and Vehari districts are submerged. Damage figures will grow as the water moves down south. Standing crops of rice, cotton, maize, fodders and vegetables have been washed away. Hard core rice belts in Hafizabad all the way to Narowal and the cotton belt in Bahawalnagar have been damaged. Cash and exportable crops like sesame and rice have been dented. The wheat acreage likely to be replaced by alternative crops due to repeat market failures in the past two harvest years shall go down further due to lack of drainage. Flood waters in the fringes of rivers are usually considered a blessing in disguise due to improved soil fertility and recharged aquifers beneath, particularly in the bed of Sutlej. However, this time the water has gone beyond the dykes.
The rescued livestock is bound to go to the butchers. Transport disruptions can restrict supply of perishables, vegetables, fruits and milk in particular to urban centres. Drop in construction, tourism and other economic activity reduces the incomes of small businesses and daily wagers.
A normalisation plan should include the following:
The affected locations must be declared calamity hit and fit for full waivers and remedies under law and philanthropy. Loans and subsidised inputs for next crop can help rehabilitation.
Import of wheat is imminent to keep food inflation low. The key is the timing of import. Last year, the imported wheat arrived in the month of April to the detriment of the farmers in Sindh who were then harvesting wheat.
Public health support is immediately needed to protect the displaced population. That should include vaccination of human and livestock and deworming of animals.
Forecasting and damage assessment have been fairly good. However, precision in data gathering (remote sensing), analytics and image analysis can improve the outcomes.
In the long run, we have to readjust our agricultural practices and cropping systems, making them compatible with ecological diversity. Farmers adapt by seeing adaptable changes. In the long run, investment in modern breeding programmes is needed to develop climate resilient crop varieties and livestock breeds.
The floods have exposed the shortcomings of our land use. Practices like conversion of prime agricultural land into housing colonies not only place communities in flood zones at risk but also erode our agricultural base. There is an urgent need to revisit these policies to safeguard the national food security.
Normalisation plans should include restoration of life and infrastructure development i.e., roads, schools, hospitals and subsidised housing. The rehabilitation of farmers should be helped by providing them with farm implements, seeds and fertilisers.
Finally, as a society we should show empathy for those affected by these disasters.
The writer is a former vice chancellor of the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.