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he Punjab is threatened with drowning. The crisis is a painful reminder of how global climate chaos and local misgovernance collide. The Flood Forecasting Division in Lahore has already issued a red alert for the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab after India released water from its reservoirs. The release has pushed these rivers dangerously close to their capacity, leaving cities, villages and farmlands under mounting threat. On August 27, the River Chenab at Marala and Khanki recorded water flows of 902,200 and 852,800 cusecs, respectively, against a capacity of 1,100,000 cusecs each. The Ravi, too, is rising beyond comfort levels, with Jassar at 236,900 cusecs and Shahdara and Balloki receiving 73,400 and 79,900 cusecs against capacities of 250,000 and 380,000. The Sutlej is swelling at Ganda Singh Wala and Sulemanki, recording 253,100 and 194,660 cusecs. The situation could worsen as scattered thunderstorms are forecast for the lower catchment areas of Chenab and Ravi, adding yet more water to rivers already straining at their seams.
This year’s monsoon has been extraordinary. The Punjab has received 25 percent more rainfall than normal, with extreme events pushing the system to breaking point. In mid July, Rawalpindi was battered by 230 millimeters of rain within a few hours, causing urban flooding. Chakwal was struck by an astonishing 423 millimeters in just 24 hours after a cloudburst. These are not isolated events but signs of a new climate reality. The amount of rain is beyond the capacity of our cities and drains. The Punjab was never built to handle such volumes. Climate change and misgovernance explain why we are suffering more than ever before.
The fingerprints of climate change are all over this disaster. Global warming has already pushed the planet 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The consequences for South Asia, the Punjab in particular, are devastating. Weather and precipitation patterns have become erratic. Winters are turning drier; springs bring destructive hailstorms; summers are hotter and longer, punctuated by brutal heatwaves; monsoons are growing more intense and unpredictable; and the end of the year brings suffocating smog. This vicious cycle is not entirely of the Punjab’s making. It is driven by the emissions of the world’s largest polluters—the United States, China, India, European nations, Russia and Japan. However, developing countries like Pakistan pay the heaviest price. The Punjab’s floods are a local tragedy rooted in global injustice.
Meanwhile, misgovernance has turned what could have been a difficult season into an outright catastrophe. Private housing societies continue to expand across the Punjab, treating environmental regulations as optional. The law requires every new project to conduct an Environmental Impact Assessment and to maintain five percent green cover. But these rules are routinely ignored. Construction on natural drains is commonplace, diverting water into residential neighbourhoods. The choking of drains with solid waste, particularly in cities like Lahore, Rawalpindi and Faisalabad, causes even modest rainfall to paralyse entire communities. Along rivers, hotels and commercial ventures eat into floodplains, worsening erosion and eliminating tree cover. Forest Watch data reveals that the Punjab lost 454 hectares of tree cover between 2001 and 2024. The loss of trees removes a natural barrier against floods and strips the landscape of its ability to absorb water. Deforestation is not just an ecological issue; it is a matter of human survival.
The social and economic dimensions compound the crisis. Rural-to-urban migration continues at a rapid pace as families seek better education, healthcare and jobs. The concentration of economic activity in the Punjab’s cities is an unsustainable strain on infrastructure, leaving millions vulnerable to floods. Meanwhile, environmental institutions are underfunded and understaffed, unable to enforce the laws that could mitigate the damage. What should be proactive governance is reduced to reactive crisis management every monsoon season. The costs are borne by ordinary people.
If the Punjab is to survive the recurring shocks, it must rethink its future. A first step is to conduct comprehensive studies to identify climate hotspots and plan resettlement in safer zones. The provincial government must also learn to treat floods as both a hazard and an opportunity. Mobilising international finance under the Paris Agreement is not only possible but necessary. Rehabilitation, climate-resilient infrastructure and an expanded network of monitoring stations will require resources far beyond provincial means. At home, afforestation programmes should be launched with a focus on indigenous species that regulate local climates and absorb excess water. Our urban growth model must change as well. The Punjab cannot continue to sprawl outward on fragile floodplains; vertical housing with rooftop gardens is no longer an urban fancy but a necessity. Public transport projects like metro buses must be scaled up to reduce emissions and free up space in congested cities.
At the heart of governance lies enforcement. Environmental laws exist. They need to be applied without fear or favour. Illegal construction on drains and rivers must be dismantled and the culture of treating EIAs as ceremonial paperwork must end. Punjab’s institutions must be empowered not just with funds but with professional capacity to anticipate, plan and mitigate.
The floods of 2025 should not be dismissed as just another episode in Punjab’s long battle with water. They are a warning that the province is caught in a dangerous convergence of global climate change and local neglect. Inaction will mean repeating this nightmare every year, with escalating costs in lives and livelihoods. The Punjab is threatened with drowning, but it is not too late to change course. If this tragedy sparks genuine reform, then perhaps these waters can serve as a baptism into a more resilient, equitable and sustainable future.
The writer is a US based environmentalist and a senior visiting research associate at Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad.