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magine a self-proclaimed outstanding negotiator and a master manipulator meeting in a scenic military base in Alaska, discussing the endgame for the Russia-Ukraine war, now in its third year.
US President Donald Trump has so far gained seven nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize
Russian President Vladimir Putin, has been in power for the last 25 years.
The venue is Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska’s largest military base. To host a summit in Alaska is symbolic, too. In 1867, Russia under Tsar Alexander II, had sold it to the US.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not been invited. This reminds one of the idea, “if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.” A similar expression in Chinese conveys the idea as: “If you’re not the knife or the chopping board, you’ll be the fish or meat upon it.”
The Alaska summit bears a resemblance to the Munich Agreement of 1938, in which Germany, Great Britain, France and Italy reached a settlement allowing Germany to annex the Sudetenland in western Czechoslovakia. There was no representation of the Czechoslovakian government at the negotiating table.
Only recently, Trump remarked about the possibility of a trilateral meeting between himself, Putin and Zelenskyy, that is if his meeting with his Russian counterpart goes well.
But that does not relieve stress on the leaders of Ukraine and its European allies, especially considering the talk of land swaps. Trump, while talking about his “feel-out meeting” with Putin, mentioned, “There’ll be some land swapping going on.”
For Western Europe and Ukraine an agreement to a ceasefire – without a land swap - would be a decent outcome. But that maybe idealistic. Experts refer to Finnish President Alexander Stubb’s framework for Ukraine with a focus on independence, sovereignty and territory. Finland’s case is important to consider as it fought two wars with Russia in the mid-20th Century followed by peace treaties that involved Finland conceding about 10 percent of its territory. The post-war Finland remained neutral to not annoy Russia.
As per Stubb’s framework, Ukraine, even if it doesn’t achieve all the goals, can maintain its independence and democracy by making some de facto territorial concessions.
This is being touted as a realistic way of looking at the situation.
The European camp will be expecting post-summit ‘surprises.’ In denying President Zelenskyy a seat at the table, President Putin is already seen as a winner.
Meeting in Helsinki in 2018, Trump had sided with Putin rather than United States’ own intelligence agencies, accepting Russia’s denial of interference in the 2016 US election.
Those keeping tabs on Friday’s meeting expect it to be anything but conventional. Putin will most likely put Trump’s ignorance to the test. Some experts worry that Trump is up against a seasoned manipulator. Unlike his host, President Putin is detail-oriented. Former French president, François Hollande, has said, “Putin’s technique is professional lying.”
Trump, in a rush to get a deal, seems to think that his presence at the summit will catalyse a ceasefire. Maybe the draft post or his socials is ready. It could end with his trademark THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER. His impulsive statements are unsettling for the leaders of Europe.
Putin is in no hurry either. According to Hollande, Putin may start off by going through the whole story, following the ‘Russian method’ of negotiation: prolonging the discussion so that there appears to be no progress. This could then lead to another meeting or another round of talks.
Putin, thorough with his details, will continue to test his counterpart with his ‘curated’ facts. His aim would be for Trump to view the war through the Russo-lens – one where the Russians are in a better position. Once that is done, he will try to convince Trump to stop supporting Ukraine.
Trump could avoid the trap by refusing to discuss matters like Ukrainian sovereignty in the absence of its leader. This means that he shouldn’t hint at a recognition of the Russian occupation of Ukrainian land. He should wait for a potential trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy present to defend his nation’s sovereignty.
Fallout for India
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that Washington could increase secondary tariffs on India. He said the decision would depend on the outcome of President Donald Trump’s meeting with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. “We’ve put secondary tariffs on Indians for buying Russian oil. If things don’t go well, then sanctions or secondary tariffs could go up,” Bessent said. Earlier this month, Trump had imposed a 25 percent penalty on India in addition to 25 percent tariffs for buying oil and weapons from Russia.
If Trump allows Putin to steer the summit, and grant him he wants, the world will witness the classic realist maxim in action – might is right.
This model will not be limited to the European continent. The world is already witnessing the 21st Century genocide in Gaza by Israel, in plain sight since October 2023.
If one looks back at Trump’s meetings with leaders like China’s Xi Jinping and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, they were mostly optics. Not much was achieved.
While Putin will continue to push Trump to view the Russian map through his lens, Trump could play tough.
The West wants Trump to pressure Putin through sanctions etc and demand the withdrawal of Russian forces to the pre-February 2022 lines and a ceasefire agreed upon by both the warring parties. Trump could propose lifting sanctions on Russia and assure Putin that Ukraine will remain outside the NATO.
His European allies want Trump to keep the dialogue going, without compromising Ukraine’s sovereignty or territorial integrity. Like Korean war, this could be a conflict where no final resolution is achieved.
The writer, acommunicationsprofessional, holds a master’s degree ininternational relations. Her writing focuses on global affairs, climate change, and culture. She can bereached on X:mariaamkahn