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ilgit-Baltistan is facing one of its worst natural disasters in recent memory. Flash floods and mudslides have swept through 10 districts, killing at least 10 people, displacing thousands and damaging vital infrastructure. Driven by record heat and extreme rainfall and spurred by years of deforestation and construction on old flood channels, the surging waters have overwhelmed the valleys from Skardu to Hunza. Waterways that had been dry for 30 to 40 years have suddenly come alive, turning into raging torrents and surprising communities.
Roads have been torn apart, farms inundated and entire stretches of infrastructure washed away. Skardu Road has suffered heavy mudflows and floodwaters have disrupted the water ways and irrigation channels around Gilgit. At least one power station, road network and farmland have taken a hit. In a region where terrain already complicates development, the consequences have been severe.
This year’s unprecedented flooding is attributed to two key man-made factors: deforestation and encroachment on natural flood channels. It began with extreme weather in June and July. A deadly combination of record-breaking heat and unusually heavy rainfall hit the region. In Chilas and Bunji temperatures soared past 47°C, accelerating snow and glacier melt. This was followed by torrential rains - 70pc above the monthly average in July - that overwhelmed rivers and slopes, says Meteorological Office spokesman Dr Zaheer Babar.
In Diamer and Astore, large-scale deforestation further destabilised the landscape. Lightning strikes triggered massive landslides and mudflows, even causing glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in Hunza.
According to Forests, Wildlife and Environment Department, the Gilgit-Baltistan region once had a forest cover of 249,205 hectares. Diamer district had the highest forest cover at 71 percent, followed by Astore at 12 percent and Gilgit at 10 percent. Together, these three districts accounted for 93 percent of Gilgit-Baltistan’s forest area.
Historically, the area supported rich and diverse forest ecosystems. In particular, Astore and Diamer - along with the Thak and Niyat forests in Babusar - were home to dense temperate coniferous forests comprising species such as deodar cedar, blue pine, fir, spruce and the prized chilgoza pine. Although Gilgit had a dry climate, it contained patches of juniper woodlands, riverine vegetation and hardy shrubs like Artemisia and sea buckthorn. These maintained ecological stability by regulating water flow, preventing soil erosion and supporting rare wildlife species such as the Himalayan musk deer and the snow leopard. They also provided fuel wood, medicinal plants and edible nuts to local communities.
In recent decades, extensive deforestation - driven by illegal logging, overgrazing, land-use changes and unregulated development - has significantly reduced forest cover. This has led to severe ecological consequences, including increased landslides, floods and overall environmental degradation.
The massive landslides and mudflows are the likely result of a combination of extreme weather and environmental degradation, particularly in the heavily deforested and desiccated areas. According to Dr Zaheer Babar, “when forest cover is removed, the land is exposed to intense solar radiation. During heavy rains when lightning strikes the dry, rocky terrain it causes instantaneous thermal shock, fracturing weakened rocks.” This makes them prone to collapsing into mudflows or landslides, leading to a cascade of debris – mud, boulders – that enters flood streams and wreaks havoc. The irony was reflected in the debris, which flowed through the channels carrying hundreds of logs, starkly representing man’s destructive role.
This year’s flooding is attributed to two key man-made factors: deforestation and encroachments on natural flood channels that severely aggravated the disaster. The region was hit by a deadly combination of record-breaking heat and unusually heavy rainfall.
This led to flash floods across the region causing massive destruction in Diamer, in particular, its Thak and Thor valleys where Babusar Top is located. Normally, the flood stream carried up to 4,000 cusecs of water. However, on June 26 it grew to around 50,000 cusecs and washed away a 6-kilometre chunk of the Babusar Top Road.
As World Wide Fund for Nature-Pakistan Director General HammadNaqi puts it: “One of the most alarming causes is the unchecked encroachment on natural flood pathways. This severely disrupts water flow and dramatically increases the risk of catastrophic flooding. Over the years, these once-respected flood channels were gradually built over.” Villages, communities and even farmland now sit atop what were historically active flood corridors. One of the major flood channels in Gilgit, Jutyal, has grown into a huge neighbourhood “in and along the channel” essentially encroaching on the flood-prone zone - some of which hadn’t seen flooding for 30 to 40 years. It houses government offices, the secretariat, hotels and the legislative assembly. “Two other natural flood channels including the Danyore flood channel in Gilgit played havoc with the irrigation and the potable water network to the villages housing nearly 25,000 people leaving them without water to this day,” says Salamat Ali a resident of Sultanabad, Gilgit.
In several cases “the debris destroyed the headworks of the irrigation network, washing away irrigation channels, says the WWF DG. The encroachment of flood channels in Hunza also multiplied the scale of destruction.“
There is a growing consensus that natural flood pathways must be preserved, regardless of how long they’ve been inactive. “It is a known fact that varying in size and pattern these flood streams do revive even after a century,” says the WWF director general. “We have now seen their flows after almost four decades.” As recent events show, the absence of flooding for decades does not mean immunity in the future.”
“To make matters worse,” a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) from the Shishpar glacier in Hussainabad, Hunza, unleashed devastating destruction across the community. Rushing floodwaters destroyed and damaged multiple homes, leaving many families homeless. The agricultural heart of the area was decimated - crops were buried under thick layers of mud and rocks; fruit orchards were wiped out; and precious topsoil washed away, leaving farmland unusable. The flood’s toll extended to livestock as well. Countless goats, cows and other farm animals swept away or killed. Infrastructure suffered massive blows, including roads and bridges being washed out.
In other districts of GB, the consequences of these factors were stark. Skardu’s Ghanche, housing Badswat and Tersat Hindur glaciers, generated flash floods because of the rains and huge snow melt. “The mud flow and other debris covered a major road in Skardu causing blockades.”
Similarly, these factors led to disastrous flooding in Ishkoman valley in Ghizr. The devastation unfolded with brutal efficiency - homes crushed into rubble, their walls collapsing beneath the mud’s relentless weight. Another 200 dwellings stood as hollowed-out shells. Across 30 villages, 40 life-giving water channels vanished without a trace. The infrastructure fared no better. Major roads have been badly damaged, blocking travel. 8-9 kilometres of the Karakoram Highway are now unusable; nearly 20 kilometres of roads have been ffected.
The floods are a harsh warning of the consequences of environmental neglect and unplanned development. What was once a region of pristine glaciers and resilient forests has become a post card of extreme weather amplified by deforestation and poorly regulated construction. Experts agree that urgent, science-backed policy decisions are needed to restore forest cover, halting construction along flood-prone areas and protecting the region’s fragile ecosystems.
The floods have shown the cost of inaction — and unless things change, this disaster could be a preview of what’s ahead.
The writer is a senior The News staffer in Karachi.