Does our optimism add up?

The potential of a skilled youth and the demographic dividend

By Baela Raza Jamil
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July 13, 2025


T

he Youth Parvaaz (ascent) interns from six universities and higher secondary schools from Pakistan and beyond are currently attached to Idara-i-Taleem-o-Aagahi programmes buzzing with unique ideas, equipped with AI drive and energy to solve Pakistan’s challenges; they are honing lifetime skills and shaping their future. The youth are our present and future showcased in every population pyramid comprising distinct age blocks: age group 15-29 years or one in three Pakistanis represent 30 percent of the population; two out of three below the age of 30 (64 percent); and 63 percent between 15-33 years, out of a population of 241 million. This is the famous and visible ‘youth bulge’ that we have been referring to in each critical policy of the country on education, skills, IT, labour and manpower, youth and Pakistan’s big programmes such as URAAN Pakistan and the 5Es (exports, e-Pakistan, energy, environment/ climate change, equity and empowerment). The ‘youth bulge’ is projected to sustain for decades up to 2050 and beyond. We know that this will be an asset if we invest wisely in education, skills and human development and a nightmare if it is allowed to remain illiterate and vulnerable to negative tendencies, putting pressure on resources and posing challenge for job creation.

Pakistan’s demographic dividend is thus waiting to be plucked where population, education, skills, social cohesion and life skills are fused. The recently launched Economic Survey of Pakistan 2024-2025 has data on youth and skills across multiple chapters on education, population, labour force and employment, and information technology, reinforcing the powerful reality of investing in youth when many elements, including digital penetration (mobile phone 91 percent and internet 46 percent) is well aligned. Poverty stands at 26 percent with economic stagnation and declining wages. Such odds notwithstanding, our youth remain extremely keen to engage in programmes that will make them capable for livelihoods and mindsets to become lifelong learners. Data on labour force (2020-2021) continues to highlight that only 1 in 4 women are in the labour force. The benefits of the demographic dividend cannot be reaped with half the population not fully active in the labour market. This is dragging our labour force participation rate; an unacceptable and recurrent reality.

Stacking data for this age group from official administrative statistics, we can see that the net completion rate in higher secondary is 23 percent; TVET graduates/ enrolled account for just 0.458 million (0.152 million women) in multiple programmes; and 1.95 million (0.9 million women) enrolled in universities. Thus only 1 in 5 complete Grade 12 and one in 10 make it to tertiary education. In spite of all the targeting and innovative skilling opportunities, TVET remains peripheral for our youth, particularly females in rural areas and urban slums.

The message of education and training lies at the core of the SDG 2030 Agenda crying for critical attention to affordable and accessible education and technical and vocational skills programme for employment, economic inclusion, self-enterprise and livelihoods as decent work mindful of gender justice and equality. This is a multi-sectoral and multi-indicator strategy.

TVET when interpreted through a holistic lens, means a range of certified marketable skills, along with life skills, digital literacy and financial inclusion. This approach is particularly appropriate for the category of youth who are ‘not in education, employment and training’ (NEET), the large number who are operating in the informal sector on very vulnerable terms undermining their dignity and potential. In Pakistan, the NEET group (15-29 years) is 33 percent with a higher rate for young women; this group needs urgent attention through innovative fast track programmes. What is uncounted needs to be accounted for including the informal sector, where 46 percent of the workforce is active and with significant gender disparity as 70 percent of women are engaged as unpaid family workers. This has to be flipped into a formal labour force reality with social justice as a key principle. This visible-invisible reality must end so that formal initiatives can be ramped up as constitutional and legal entitlements for our youth.

Clearly, we are not in a happy space to be celebrating the 10th anniversary of the World Youth Skills Day on July 15, dedicated to the theme of Youth Empowerment through AI and Digital Skills—using transformative AI and TEVT to adapt to ongoing challenges and changes. We, the people, are however convinced that this can be shifted to a very positive space if we connect the dots and leverage multiple financing and implementation opportunities. The current unimaginative financing will not deliver the targets and the ambitions of our youth who are committed to a strong, cohesive and happy Pakistan.

Several schemes for the youth are under way at the national and provincial levels—the Prime Minister’s Youth Business and Agricultural Loan Scheme; the Prime Minister’s Youth Skill Development Programme; Skills for All; Hunarmand; and Naujawan—seeking to transform Pakistan’s demographic challenge into a driver of economic growth, social inclusion and stability. UNICEF, through its Generational Unlimited programme with the government of Pakistan, has multiple initiatives under way to support youth and positively offset NEET indicators through education, skills, employment, enterprise, leadership, social impact and civic engagement.

The TVET landscape needs further coherence of purpose, ambition and outcomes with the National and Vocational Technical Training Commission, the Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority and its provincial counterpart outposts such as the Punjab Vocational Technical Council and the Punjab Skills Development Fund. Well accredited private sector certified TVET entities, approximately 4,000 institutions, cater to less than 0.5 million whilst the skilling demand is of 2.5 million youth. The gap is hard hitting especially for rural youth (rural population 60 percent) and the women, especially with an urban bias on skills and labour market options. Urban TVET initiatives need to be leveraged in targeted spaces to offset heavy rural-urban migration trends. Many development agencies—including ADB, GIZ, WB, European Union, the FCDO, the UNICEF, the UNESCO, the AKF and the British Council—are working alongside the government to accelerate skills and life skills for the youth. The government needs to step up its strategy for rapid outcomes through well-heeled public private partnership options.

When the ITA established Guddi Baji as a supply chain initiative led by young women in the Punjab using public sector facilities, and with Siyani Sahelian (wise friends) equipping our youth with second chance academic, life skills and certified skilling with digital and financial inclusion skills, we witnessed rich dividends and high return on investment. There is an emergent rich ecosystem in place, driven by AI/ digital high touch and hi-tech adaptive low-cost options. These initiatives, including Parvaaz internships, must be ramped up across public, non-state, formal and community spaces to accelerate the possibilities for our youth, women, men and transgenders to find their rightful place in learning skills with social justice.


The writer is the CEO of Idara-i-Taleem-o-Aagahi, a Pakistan Learning Festival founder and an Education Commission commissioner. She can be reached at baela.jamilitadec.org.