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The country is threatened by an excruciating drought. The Advisory Committee of Indus River System Authority has estimated water shortage for April at 43 percent. The IRSA will monitor the situation on monthly basis. These shortfalls restrict canal flows and leave the croplands parched.
In the third week of March, the Pakistan Meteorological Department issued a drought alert. The projection revealed a precipitation scenario. The country had received 40 percent less rainfall than normal in the preceding months. Sindh was the driest province with 62 percent below normal rainfall. The Punjab and Balochistan had received 38 percent and 52 percent less rain between September 1 and March 24. According to the PMD data, snowfall in the catchments of Indus and Jhelum Rivers wa 31 percent less - at 26.8 inches against the normal of 49.7 inches. The drought alert makes an ominous forecast of likelihood of flash drought; a situation where evapo-transpiration deprives soil of residual moisture due to intensive heat. This can aggravate unfavourable conditions for agriculture.
The torment doesn’t seem to end soon as weather outlook for the next quarter is also unpleasant. Below normal rainfall may intensify the soil moisture deficiency as mercury is likely to rise in April. According to the outlook report, atmospheric conditions are indicating likelihood of heat wave development during the season; especially over the plains of southern Punjab and Sindh.
On the World Water Day, the UNESCO released an alarming report about unprecedented pace of glacial melting in Hindu Kush-Himalayan region. Indus River receives more than 70 percent of its water from glaciers located in this region. These glaciers retreated at a startling rate of 65 percent faster in 2011-2020 than in the previous decade. The HKH region, spread over 3,500 square kilometers, is seen as the source of 10 large Asian river systems, including the Indus. These rivers provide water to 1.9 billion people in their basins. Rising temperatures the shrinking cryo-sphere are likely to trigger droughts that may threaten food, water energy and livelihood security for millions of souls in the region.
While all provinces are vulnerable to drought, Sindh the lowest riparian in the Indus basin, is enduring the worst situation. Sukkur barrage, the backbone of Sindh’s agriculture, is receiving less than half of its full allocation under the 1991 Water Accord.
The Irrigation Department has advised the farmers to delay the Kharif sowing as Tarbela storage has touched the dead level. Kharif sowing typically starts early in Sindh as water indent reaches 40,000 cusecs in the first week of April compared to less than 20,000 cusecs in the last week of March. There has been a little relief from inflows of Kabul River, however the shortfall is large. If the situation does not improve by mid-April yields of cotton, sugarcane, mango, banana and vegetables will be affected. The situation in the Punjab is slightly better on account of recourse to ground water and late sowing of Kharif. Also, the storage at Mangla Dam is far from exhausted.
A World Bank report, Pakistan’s Water Economy: Running Dry, has warned that as a result of rapid glacier retreat, the Indus basin is likely to experience reduction of 30 percent to 40 percent of water flows in the coming decades.
This is, however, not an exceptional year. During five of the last 10 years, Tarbela Dam has touched dead level during March. The trend indicates an increased frequency of droughts. Except for 8-10 weeks of monsoon, Indus River doesn’t receive fulsome flows. The flow below Kotri barrage is declining. The river discharge data of the last 25 years shows that for 12 years, flows below Kotri Barrage was less than 10 million acre feet, the amount provisionally agreed on in the Water Accord.
The average annual flow below Kotri Barrage has drastically declined from 40.69 MAF during 1976-1998 to 14 MAF during 1999-2022. The data belies the frequently claimed quantum of surplus flows below Kotri Barrage, often used as justification for new reservoirs and canals on Indus.
The on-ground situation merits a paradigm shift. A World Bank report, Pakistan’s Water Economy: Running Dry, warns that as a result of rapid glacier retreat, the Indus basin is likely to experience reduction of 30 percent to 40 percent of water flows in the coming decades. The present approach of relying on construction of new dams and canals will end up squandering meager resources. However there are no signs of the obsession with mega infrastructure projects ending soon.
The proposed new structures can only be beneficial if there is more water in the basin. IRSA’s water accounts for 1999-2023 reveal that the Punjab and Sindh endured an average annual water shortages of 13.7 per cent and 19.4pc, respectively. The Tarbela Dam has lost 40 percent of its storage capacity as over ten billion tonnes of silt has accumulated in its lake. In other words, the Bhasha Dam storage will merely compensate for the lost capacity of Tarbela.
Amid such colossal water deficit in the Indus basin, pressing for new canals and pursuit of ambitious plans for corporate farming over millions of acres hardly appear practical. We should move towards conservation options. Our abnormally high water losses, primitive farming practices, flawed choice of high delta crops and sub-standard agricultural inputs need a complete overhaul. Pakistan’s per unit water and land productivity is among the lowest in this region. This cushion should be used as an opportunity to augment crop yields and production through improved practices.
New storage and diversion projects are a misplaced priority due to unavailability of water. Controversy over these projects is also stoking interprovincial disharmony. Water distribution has remained a contentious issue with a baggage of deep rooted mistrust among upper and lower riparian provinces. A more harmonious and sagacious approach is need to manage a turbulent water front.
The writer is a civilsociety professional, nmemon2004yahoo.com