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urrently, more than a third of Pakistan’s population is urban. Much of this urbanisation is driven by migration.
In the past, Partition and wars led to refugees crossing the borders into Pakistan. Most of them settled in urban areas, particularly in the eastern provinces, the Punjab and Sindh.
Then there is the issue of population growth. The 7th Population and Housing Census in 2023 showed that the population had risen to 241.5 million, from 207.7 million in 2017, the annual growth rate being 2.51 percent.
Cities are beacons of hope for the rural people seeking new livelihoods and essential services. This pull factor, combined with the increase in the country’s total population, has led to a significant rise in urban population. However, the millions of young people leaving their hometowns for a ‘brighter’ future are unaware that the glimmering metropolis does not have enough jobs or housing for them.
There’s a housing demand for 6.4 million units in the urban areas of the Punjab. This is expected to increase to 11.3 million by 2047. A recent report by the World Bank puts the housing poverty in the Punjab at 25.8 percent. The easing of regulations by Lahore Development Authority for building high-rises to facilitate a vertical growth trend is being intensely debated. Deregulation has created new opportunities for real estate developers.
Social housing does not appear to be a priority for the private sector in Lahore. The government is finding it difficult to facilitate private investment through construction subsidies and provision of land for building affordable housing. The housing shortage and inequality are highly likely to increase if the situation continues and there are no sustainable interventions.
Further, as housing close to the city centre becomes more expensive, more people will be forced to live on its peripheries. This is expected to increase the burden on city’s transport system.
Already, there’s been much criticism of the unrestricted horizontal expansion of the city to the south and south-west. This has led to uneven land use as more and more agricultural and vegetation land is converted into housing schemes or other built settlements.
The situation calls for an immediate response from the authorities. Further neglect could make the fabled Heart of Pakistan even more unsafe, non-inclusive and unlivable for the diverse socio-economic groups that call it their home.
Over the recent decades, there has been heavy investment by the provincial government in road infrastructure. Ironically, wider roads, ring roads and flyovers have ended up aggravating the accessibility issues instead of resolving those. Orange Line and Metro Bus are currently the only two public transport options. No other public transport for intra-city travel exists. People rely on private vehicles and are reluctant to use the commercial transport options in part on account of poor safety and surveillance systems and supporting infrastructure.
The Motor Registration Authority of the Punjab Excise and Taxation Department has already voiced concern over the alarming increase in the number of private vehicles in Lahore. It is feared that this will result in acute road obstructions and mobility issues in the coming years. It is already a factor in the most talked about issue in Lahore currently — smog.
The Environment Protection Department says vehicular emissions and construction activity in the city are the primary causes of poor air quality in Lahore. The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations says the share of transportation sector is 43 percent in air pollution in the Punjab.
Medical studies have revealed that around 135,000 people die in Pakistan every year due to air pollution. This is almost 26 percent of the annual deaths in the country. Lahore is currently ranked the most polluted city in the world. The AQI numbers have shown no improvement over the last few years.
The government has been relying on short-term tools to deal with this crisis. Temporary closure of schools and public places is not a viable solution. Poor air quality is a major public health hazard. It calls for attention towards the management and control of irresponsible and unequal urban development practices in the city.
The crises faced by the city are highly interlinked and call for an immediate response from the authorities. Further negligence could make the fabled Heart of Pakistan even more unsafe, non-inclusive and unlivable for the diverse socio-economic groups that call it their home.
Intsab Sahi is a staff member