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s politics like a chess game? Opinions differ, but many believe chess to be a game of perfect knowledge, pre-emption and aggression. At every point, you must know the game precisely: what moves are possible; and if you are considering a move, what the result might be.
The political upheaval in the country since 2022 has, in a way, been a perfect game of chess. Perhaps the only difference is that while chess players typically sit in eerie silence concentrating on their moves, in politics, there is much hue and cry. Lately, we have seen many exciting moves and counter moves. Despite its popularity and cunning tactics, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf appears to have been checkmated, even if it refuses to admit that.
From dissolving provincial assemblies to pressuring for early elections and making premature ‘final’ calls for protest in November last year, the party has failed to get the establishment to do what it wanted. Its only success has been the ice-breaking meeting between the army chief, Gen Asim Munir, and PTI leaders.
Though the PTI initiated dialogue with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz government, it was vying to talk to the real power. They achieved an enormous breakthrough by meeting the man who matters the most. Results were soon evident in the shape of written demands put up by the PTI to the government.
The main demands are the establishment of two judicial commissions to investigate arrests of PTI leaders and workers and the events of November 26. The emphasis on a review of the February 8 general elections is missing. They had mentioned “respecting people’s mandate,” but no call was made for a thorough probe to determine whether the elections were rigged or not. PML-N leader Rana Sanaullah’s assertion that the PTI has given up on their demand for an election probe appears to hold water.
PTI’s Shiekh Waqas Akram tried to defend the party stance by admitting that it was not their top demand. However, he said, it remained on the agenda. It appears that the message from that important meeting was clear: forget the general elections; get on with what can be done in the coming days. In a way, the PTI has now somewhat lost its case regarding rigged elections. This means that the Shahbaz Sharif-led government is now an uncontested government, even if not a legitimate one.
The Peshawar meeting has been framed as dealing with pressing security issues only. It has been said that politics was not on the agenda. However, if politics was not to be discussed then what was Barrister Gohar Ali Khan doing there? Ali Amin Gandapur, being the chief minister of the affected Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, could be consulted, but Barrister Gohar Ali Khan is a senior lawyer, who has been on the political forefront, not security. We have not seen him talk about anything but politics.
Imran Khan’s push to get himself out of jail will probably depend on a ‘deal’ he would have to strike with the establishment. For now, there is no other way.
Depending on how the meeting is framed by the PTI and the broader political narrative it weaves around it, this could be seen as either a compromise or a smart political move. If the PTI frames this as a step towards dialogue for the country’s stability, it might be perceived positively by some quarters. However, if it’s seen as PTI backing down from its previous aggressive stance against military involvement in politics, it might be viewed as a loss. Some political analysts argue that the meeting should be seen in terms of the party softening its stance against the establishment. On the other hand, some argue that it could be viewed as a strategic move to mend fences or negotiate a better position for the PTI in the current political landscape.
PTI’s core support base has visibly mixed feelings. Some feel that this move signifies a pragmatic approach to politics, while others see it as a betrayal of the party’s anti-establishment ethos. Outside the party, rivals could use this meeting to portray the PTI as inconsistent or too eager to align with the military.
Post the big meet, one could sense the visible edginess and aggression from the ruling party, when Imran Khan and Bushra Bibi were convicted and sentenced in a corruption case. Information Minister Atta Tarar had a busy day prior to the judgement as he spoke against the PTI leadership, trying to frame them as the ‘most corrupt.’
The establishment is firmly in the driving seat, having consolidated power and resources. The meeting was apparently meant only to get rid of the persistent Imran Khan problem. Apart from domestic pressure, international weight has been adding to the difficulty, especially with the unpredictable President Donald Trump back in the White House. Other international allies too expect clarity and political stability. If this meeting achieves national stability, PTI might benefit in the long-term. But they will have to wait till the next elections, unless the government shoots itself in the foot.
It is too early to definitively say if the PTI has politically lost or gained much so far. Political outcomes are often shaped by how events are perceived over time, the subsequent actions of the party and the broader political environment. The real impact will likely become clear as political developments unfold.
Imran Khan’s push to get himself out of jail will probably depend on a ‘deal’ he would have to strike with the establishment. For now, there is no other way. Will the establishment offer him some concession? That doesn’t seem likely any time soon. Politicians are good at portraying defeats as resounding success. But the deal might involve not targeting the ‘king.’ However, those wielding power have to be mindful of what people are thinking of them and not be seen as narrow or stubborn. As American jurist and politician Hugo L Black once said: “Loyalty must arise spontaneously from the hearts of people who love their country and respect their government.” One way to win hearts would be to bring in true democracy.
The writer, a journalist for 33 years, has been an editor at the BBC in Pakistan for over two decades. Currently, he is the managing editor at Independent Urdu