New polls indicate that former president Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in four important battleground states and will ultimately beat him.
In Georgia, Donald Trump holds a four-point lead over Biden among registered voters, 51% to 47%.
Georgia is vital for Trump this time around as Biden won Georgia by a very small margin in 2020. Biden was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1992.
Trump has also increased his support base among Black voters since 2020. However, Biden still leads Trump among African Americans.
Though he faces legal issues in the state related to the 2020 election, Trump leads the polls also among those planning to vote.
“Georgia has been ground zero for Trump’s legal problems dating back to the 2020 election. Although the overwhelming majority of Democrats and a plurality of independents think Trump broke the law, only a handful of Republicans think so," the Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, Lee Miringoff, said in a statement.
“Despite all the attention focused on the state’s vote count in 2020, more than six in 10 Georgia voters across party lines remain confident in the integrity of state and local elections.”
As regards independents, Biden leads Trump by 49 to 48 per cent difference.
In North Carolina, Trump leads Biden by three points, 51% to 48%.
Independent voters in North Carolina also favour Trump by a six-point margin. The state has been competitive for several election cycles, with both candidates vying for support among independent voters.
Barack Obama was the last Democrat to win North Carolina on the presidential level in 2008. Biden has widened his support base among white voters but with Black voters, he lost ground to Trump who also gained wider support among younger voters in North Carolina.
“North Carolina has been a battleground state for several presidential election cycles and remains so in 2024,” Dr Miringoff said. “Both Biden and Trump have secured their base. The tale of the tape will be who commands independent voters and voters who dislike both presidential candidates.”
Similarly, in Nevada, Trump has beaten Biden with 44% compared to 41%.
The executive director of Emerson College Polling, Spencer Kimball, said in a statement, “Nevada Hispanic voters support Biden over Trump, 44 per cent to 39 per cent, while white voters break for Trump over Biden, 50 per cent to 39 per cent.”
Hispanic demographics in Nevada will vote for Biden, while white voters will back Trump. Nevada's 61% voters do not want Biden to be re-elected, while 39% consider him to deserve to be reelected.
Similar support was shown for Trump also as 53% of voters said he doesn’t deserve a second chance, while 47% said he does.
The result from Nevada may surprise you as a significant portion of voters in Nevada and across the surveyed states express dissatisfaction with both candidates.
In Arizona, Trump leads by four points, 48% to 44%. In 2020, Biden won from the state by Biden by a narrow margin.
“Trump voters support the former president because they care about an issue – 33 per cent – or like Trump – 30 per cent – whereas 43 per cent of Biden voters support him because they dislike Trump, the highest sentiment among Biden voters in the swing states polled this month,” Kimball noted.
The reasons for supporting each candidate vary. Trump voters emphasise issues or personal affinity, while many Biden supporters are motivated by their dislike of Trump.