Favourable environmental conditions, including temperature, low vertical wind shear and upper-level divergence, are still supporting the tropical cyclone Biparjoy in the Arabian Sea to intensify further, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said on Thursday, adding that the cyclone has already been declared very severe cyclonic storm.
“Tropical cyclone Biparjoy, which is at a distance of about 1,160km south of Karachi in the Arabian Sea, is likely to intensify further, although it has already been declared very severe cyclonic storm,” Chief Meteorological Officer Sindh Dr Sardar Sarfaraz told The News.Quoting the PMD’s cyclone advisory, Dr Sarfaraz said Biparjoy has slowly tracked further north-north-westward and now lies near latitude 14.5°N and longitude 66.0°E at a distance of about 1,160km south of Karachi.
“Maximum sustained surface winds are 130-150 km/hour, gusts 160 km/hour around the system centre. The cyclone is likely to keep tracking further in north-north-west direction. Currently, none of Pakistan’s coastal areas are under any threat. The PMD’s cyclone warning centre in Karachi is monitoring the system and will issue updates accordingly.”
On the other hand, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its cyclone bulletin that Biparjoy would remain a very severe cyclonic storm for the next five days, and that its actual track would be predictable in the next three days.According to the IMD, there are still large variations among different weather models regarding the movement of the cyclone after three days, as one model is indicating its movement towards Oman.
“The second model is showing its movement towards Pakistan and the adjoining north Gujrat coasts, the third model is indicating its movement towards Iran-Pakistan coasts, the fourth model is predicting its movement towards Indian Gujrat coasts, the fifth model is indicating Pakistan-Iran coasts, and another model is indicating its movement towards west-central Arabian Sea,” reads the advisory.