INSIGHT
When this edition of the newspaper hits the stands, Narendra Modi would be landing in Tehran to join the leaders of the two neighbours of Pakistan to break ground for a strategically important port, which many believe is meant to circumvent Pakistan.
Modi, Iranian President Hasan Rohani and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani would sign a trilateral agreement to develop Chabahar port in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province to establish a transit-transport corridor connecting three countries as well as the landlocked Central Asian states. The proposed corridor with Chabahar port at its heart will allow Afghanistan to conduct trade with India while bypassing Pakistan.
Though the three countries have been locked in talks for the development of Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman for more than a decade, officially they say the lifting of sanctions on Iran following its agreement with the world’s major powers over its nuclear programme allowed them to refocus their attention on this project.
India showed extraordinary interest in the project after last year’s landmark visit to Pakistan by the Chinese President Xi Jinping, which prepared the ground for the development of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) by signing energy and infrastructure agreements worth 46 billion dollars with Pakistan.
Just days after Xi’s visit, Indian Minister of Road Transport and Highway Nitin Gadkari travelled to Tehran and signed the MoU for the Chabahar project, highlighting India’s keen interest to develop the port.
Indian Exim Bank has extended a 150 million dollars credit line to develop jetties and berths at Chabahar as well for other development activities like supply of steel rails worth 400 million dollars and technical assistance for building a railway line connecting Chabahar and Zahedan.
The Indian external affairs ministry said the agreement would be a strategic bulwark for greater flow of people and goods among the three countries as well as in the region.
Though every sovereign country is free to forge ties with another country, the trilateral meeting of the leaders of the three nations is taking place at a time when their relations with Pakistan are under great stress.
There were high hopes for a thaw in the ties between Pakistan and India after the election victory of the PML-N in 2013 and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had visited India to attend the inauguration of Modi as Indian Prime Minister. Moreover, Modi’s unexpected visit to Lahore earlier this year to attend the wedding ceremony of Nawaz Sharif’s granddaughter also raised hopes it would eventually pave the way for resumption of official talks, but those hopes have not yet materialised.
Similarly, when Ashraf Ghani won Afghanistan’s presidential elections, there were high hopes that the bilateral relationship, which had remained deeply strained under the presidency of Hamid Karzai, would improve, but those hopes too proved short-lived.
The deterioration in the relationship could be gauged from the fact that earlier this month, the two countries deployed tanks and armoured personnel carriers over a dispute on the fencing of some border crossings. The tension was only defused when the Indian ambassador to Pakistan called on Army Chief General Raheel Sharif who ordered reopening of the border.
With the lifting of international sanctions on Iran after its nuclear deal, some breakthrough was expected on the long-awaited Pak-Iran gas pipeline project during the visit of the Iranian president to Islamabad in March, but that visit was overshadowed by the row over the arrest of the Indian spy Kulbhushan Yadhav from Baluchistan. Ironically, Yadhav was reported to have sneaked into Pakistan from Chabahar.
Viewing the state of Pakistan’s relations with these three neighbours, the Chabahar project is seen by many as an Indian move to ‘encircle’ Pakistan and also undermine the strategic significance of the Gwadar port as well as the CPEC.
India’s interest in developing Chabahar is also a result of its frustration to be allowed overland trade to Afghanistan and Central Asia through Pakistan.
For long-running security concerns, Pakistan has not allowed Indian trucks to carry goods to west and central Asia and that is why it has to dump its goods in Dubai for onward transportation which costs too much.
The development of sea-land route would whittle down the transport costs and cut freight time from India.
Instead of getting jittery over the Indian move, Pakistan needs to launch a diplomatic offensive to reduce tensions with its neighbours, particularly Iran and Afghanistan, as the full potential of the CPEC being the main trade hub for the region could only be exploited in case of tension free ties among the regional countries.
The proposed Pak-Iran gas pipeline could play a pivotal role in mitigating strain in the bilateral relationship. The successful implementation of the project can smoothen the way for cooperation between the two countries in many other areas, notably for the restoration of peace with their common neighbour, Afghanistan. Similarly, Pakistan and Afghanistan need to re-engage in talks to address their mutual security concerns as well as redouble their efforts for the elusive Afghan peace.
It was heartening to see them attending the four-way talks in Islamabad last week for Afghan peace. However, the downgrading of their representation from ministerial level to the ambassador level raised concerns whether any tangible progress was possible at the forum.
Chabahar could provide an alternate trade route to Afghanistan and the central Asian states for the gulf and also a land-sea route to India for trade with Afghanistan and beyond. It would help bypass Pakistan, but Pakistan remains the shortest and cheapest trade route for the landlocked western and central Asian countries.
Pakistan’s strategic importance was acknowledged by Modi himself when he visited Kabul in December. He had said Pakistan was the bridge between South Asia, Afghanistan and beyond.
“We know that Afghanistan’s success will require the cooperation and support of each of its neighbours. And, all of us in the region — India, Pakistan, Iran and others — must unite,” he said while addressing the Indian parliament. Therefore, for the economic uplift of the poverty-stricken region, the regional countries need to make genuine efforts for expanding their cooperation and connectivity instead of circumventing any country.
The writer is a senior journalist based in Islamabad
