Balochistan is suffering from insurgency, bad governance and economic hardships. At the same time political uncertainty due to the Murree Accord has paralysed government functioning in Balochistan. Will there be a change of chief minister today – December 4? The PML-N turned out to be the majority party in the Balochistan Assembly after the general elections of 2013. It was expected that Nawab Sanaullah Zehri, provincial president of the PML-N, would be made the CM. However, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had a different idea in mind. As a result the Murree Accord was signed between the PML-N, the National Party (NP) and the Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP). Dr Abdul Malik Baloch of the NP, a minority party in the assembly, was made CM for the first half of the tenure. It was also agreed in the Murree Accord that there would be a change of guard after two and a half years and the provincial president of the PML-N would be the next CM. The Murree Accord was undemocratic to begin with. A minority CM should not have been forced on the majority through an agreement that was forced from the centre. Secondly, it was also an attack on provincial autonomy; the fate of Balochistan being decided in the Murree by the rulers of Lahore. Nawab Sharif often takes credit for transferring power to the nationalists despite having majority in Balochistan. It seems more like a well-planned move where Nawaz got rid of the responsibility of Balochistan. That is the reason that he has managed to escape any blame for the bad governance that has marred Balochistan since May 2013. A media war is going on between the NP and the provincial chapter of the PML-N. One day it is reported that it has been decided that Nawab Sanaullah Zehri would be the CM. The next day, there is news that Nawab Sanaullah does not have support in his party so he will not become CM. The episode leading to the Murree Accord is also exposing the media in Balochistan – a media that is clearly not independent. NP representatives claim that they will honour the Murree agreement and agree on whatever decision is made by the prime minister. In reality, they do not want to give up the office of the CM and are doing their best to retain it. The PML-N Balochistan chapter, on the other hand, is also running a campaign to gather support for Sanaullah Zehri as the next CM. In this context, there are three factors that are crucial for a successful change of power after December 4. The first factor is unity in the PML-N. It was also apparent in the last Senate elections in March this year. The PML-N lost two confirmed seats in Senate due to a division in its ranks. Some political pundits fear that the same thing can happen when the party attempts to make a collective effort to grab the office of Balochistan CM. It is said that there are different blocs within PML-N Balochistan. Former MNA Yaqoob Nasar is leading one of these blocs. He lost the Senate elections, and blames Nawab Sanaullah for that. As a result, he will obviously oppose the candidature of Nawab Sanaullah. Changez Marri, provincial minister for irrigation, is also another candidate for CM. As are – according to rumours – Jan Jamali, former CM and speaker; Jam Kamal, current state minister; and Sardar Saleh Bhotani, former caretaker CM. The PML-N Balochistan chapter rejects all allegations of internal divisions. They claim that it’s nothing more than disinformation spread by the NP to create rifts with the PML-N. The second factor is the role of PkMAP and the JUI-F in supporting the PML-N. PkMAP has been a close ally of the National Party in the two and a half years. In fact, apparently both the NP and PkMAP colluded to render PML-N powerless during that period. So far PkMAP has not showed any signs of ditching the NP but anything can happen in politics. The JUI-F has been sitting on opposition benches since June 2013. They desperately want to join the government if Nawab Sanaullah becomes CM. However, recently differences have arisen between the provincial chapter and the parliamentary group of the JUI-F on the issue of joining the next government. The former wants to remain in the opposition whereas the latter is eager to get ministries. Moreover, the third factor that will play an important role in this decision is the ongoing approach to tackle the insurgency in Balochistan. It is reported that backdoor negotiations have started with the Khan of Kalat and Brahamdagh Bugti. So, the next CM should be someone who has the confidence of both these leaders living in exile. Sources close to the Khan of Kalat say that the Khan is more comfortable dealing with Dr Malik compared to Nawab Sanaullah. Based on that argument, Dr Malik is more suitable for continuing negotiations with the Khan of Kalat. However, recent overtures by Nawab Sanaullah have also showed that he has softened his stance against the insurgents. He withdrew the FIR on the murder of his brother and son against insurgent leaders last month. This means that even Nawab Sanaullah is preparing himself to be acceptable to the insurgents if he assumes the office of the CM. At the moment there is complete uncertainty on what’s going to happen after today (Dec 4) in Balochistan. Reportedly, the prime minister is to call a meeting of the National Party, PkMAP and the PML-N. In that meeting the fate of the office of the chief minister of Balochistan will be decided. Some analysts based in Quetta disagree with that. Shahzada Zulfiqar, a veteran journalist and political analyst, believes that the ‘Establishment’ has to make the key decision about the future of the CM of Balochistan. He candidly says that Nawaz Sharif has no influence in this decision whatsoever. Anwaarul Haq Kakar, a political analyst affiliated with the PML-N, believes that transfer of power should be facilitated under the Murree Accord. He fears that if the accord is not implemented there will be serious threats to the PML-N’s politics and existence in Balochistan post the 2018 elections. Lastly, at the moment nothing can be said with certainty as to who will be the chief minister of the province after December 4. Dr Malik may well continue, or Nawab Sanaullah could take over as the next CM. There is a 50-50 chance of both scenarios. However, one thing is 100 percent clear: the people of Balochistan are highly unlikely to get immediate relief. The writer is a freelance columnist andeditor of the online newspaper, The Balochistan Point. Email: Adnan.Aamir@Live.com Twitter: @iAdnanAamir
