With the ongoing actions against extremist and militant groups in Pakistan, especially under the National Action Plan (NAP), the country’s hardcore militant groups appear to have been weakened. Whether this means a genuine or a tactical retreat is yet to be seen.

While the perception among people is that the state has firmly decided to uproot these groups, experts may disagree. In the past several months, there have been actions against Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a sectarian faction with many splinter groups that was aligned with Tehreek-i-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP) and later with al-Qaeda. Another ‘bold’ step has come in the form of effecting the death sentence, awarded to the killer of governor Salmaan Taseer in a sensitive issue like blasphemy.

Besides, there are tall claims being made about eliminating terrorist groups, especially in the tribal areas.

This resolve of the state was affirmed and translated into bold action after the December 16, 2014 attack on the Army Public School Peshawar by the TTP, killing almost 150 students and teachers.

Many people assume that the close relationship between the state and the religious right is now over. However, a recent threat by the hardcore religio-political factions of forming a grand alliance against the government’s proposed Women Protection Law will be a real test case for the government.

While it is too early to say anything with finality, experts doubt the state has ended its affair with militant and extremist groups.

The religious right wing has neither weakened nor abandoned. "It is not yet clear whether the state has decided to abandon hardcore religious groups. The current moves of the state are mainly to gain operational territory. Due to the many years of conflict in different tribal areas and even Karachi, Pakistan had lost its operational capacity in these territories. These operations are to maintain the writ of the state in these areas," says political scientist Dr Mohammad Waseem.

However, he says, there are no long term policies or actions to weaken the religious right wing. "Madrassas are being opened almost every day. The implementation on National Action Plan is mostly to gain operational territory."

In Pakistan, the ascendancy of religious right began in the early 1950s. It got a big boost in the 1970s and ’80s, with the religious groups ultimately becoming a major partner of the state in the cold war against Russia. These groups later split into various ideological and strategic factions, some siding with the state and fighting in Indian Kashmir and some becoming active against America in Afghanistan, defying the state’s policy of selective jihad.

In the 1970s, the religious right managed to force the state to formally declare Ahmadis as non-Muslim, through a constitutional amendment. The 1980s and ’90s saw a proxy sectarian war being fought on the Pakistani soil. Post 9/11, these groups started targeting the Pakistani state, its institutions and people because of siding with the US and NATO alliance against al-Qaeda and related groups in Afghanistan. More than 80,000 people including security forces have died in these attacks in Pakistan in the past 15 years.

"We don’t see any consistency in government’s action plan against terrorism. Yes, militants groups and hardcore religious factions have been curtailed in certain territories but there is no full implementation of National Action Plan against terrorism," says Afrasiab Khattak, former chairman Human Rights Commission of Pakistan and also ex-senator of Awami National Party.

"If you start looking at all 20 points of the National Action Plan against terrorism, [you realise that] most of these have not been implemented in letter and spirit, even though 15 months have passed after the APS attack. There are operations against terrorist groups and they have been ousted from certain areas. But they are still active in other areas and can attack whenever they have space and opportunity. Some recent examples are of a blast in a government bus in Peshawar and Bacha Khan University attack," he says, adding that the policy of good and bad Taliban is still being followed.

Khattak says unless there are fundamental changes -- like moves to change mindsets and developing a counter narrative --it would be incorrect to say or think that the state has changed its policy. He too says the change in policy is only to establish its writ in certain areas and not to deal with the ideology of the religious right.

"We need to be firm, fair, transparent, equal and consistent while dealing with such groups. Oherwise, there have been operations against such groups in the past as well," says Khattak, referring to the operation in Swat and actions against LeJ in the 1990s.

He says people would believe in the state having changed its policy when there is change in curriculum, when there are seminary reforms and when the state stops making a distinction between various militant groups. "Otherwise, it would be merely an action that suits the state for a particular period or in a particular phase."

"The tragedy is this that even today, the state and government condemn terrorist activities but do not condemn these groups by calling them with their names," says Khattak. "We need a collective and consistent resolve."

Among some recent developments, there have been claims of taking action against the militant groups acting in Indian occupied Kashmir, known as ‘non-state actors’ from Pakistan waging jihad against the Hindus. This policy of insurgency was first backed by and later abandoned by the state after some of these militant factions had moved to Indian Kashmir from Afghanistan in the late 1980s.

Though the state has denounced this insurgency verbally, experts think that it would hardly take a practical step taken against groups that are active in India. After a recent attack on India’s Pathankot Airbase in New Delhi, the current movers and shakers of the state have announced to take action against such non-state actors like Jaish-e-Muhammad. Practically, the steps seem very vague. In 2008, there were some restrictions on Lashkar-e-Taiba’s parent organisation, Jamaat-u-Dawa (JuD), in Pakistan. But experts think JuD is still very much active.

"We are still not sure to what extent the current actions of the state against certain militant organisations would go. There are no clear actions against the non-state actors engaged in India. The [distinction between] good and bad Taliban is still there. In this situation, it is very difficult to stay that the state has abandoned the religious-right or that hardcore groups are fully eliminated," says Tariq Pervez, former director general of National Counterterrorism Authority (NACTA).

There are some actions to clear some areas but whether there is a policy shift that is yet to be seen, says Pervez. "Also, these hard core groups are not uprooted fully and they seem to be following a "wait and see" policy."