any scholars, academics and political commentators are blaming former prime minister Imran Khan for the dramatic disintegration of his party – the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf. Others have argued that the powerful establishment has a more significant role in this fragmentation of the PTI. They say that the PTI is neither the first political party nor the last to fall prey to such a disintegration – giving rise to splinter groups. Pakistan’s history is replete with examples of fragmentation of political parties and the emergence of new political parties and successor groups.

Both mainstream parties and splinter groups have a role in shaping the political landscape and influencing electoral results. Splinter groups are factions or subgroups that emerge from existing political parties. They surface when a subset of members in an established party disagrees with the dominant ideology, leadership or policy direction of the party. These dissenting members break away from the main party and form a separate entity, often with a distinct set of principles or goals. Splinter groups may arise due to ideological differences, strategic disagreements or personal rivalries. They can have a significant impact on the political system by influencing public opinion, attracting supporters and voters; and sometimes by challenging the dominance of established parties. Thus, splinter groups, along with the political parties, contribute to the dynamics of a political system, political discourse, policy debates and electoral outcomes.

Historically, the All Pakistan Muslim League splintered into several groups as a result of factional politics in the 1950s and 1960s. The founders of almost all splintered groups cited the same reason: the Muslim League had deviated from its ideology and philosophy, propounded and advocated by Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan.

In the same vein, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) fell prey to factionalism. Mir Murtaza Bhutto, for example, disagreed with Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari’s political philosophy and founded a new party, the Pakistan Peoples Party-Shaheed Bhutto. Similarly, Aftab Sherpao had a confrontation with Benazir Bhutto in 1999 that resulted in the formation of Pakistan Peoples Party-Sherpao, a more reformist party with a libertarian agenda.

The factionalism politics and confrontation, which had plagued the PPP, continued in 2011 when the PPP sacked Shah Mahmood Qureshi over the Raymond Davis incident in Lahore. Qureshi later joined the PTI. Just like Qureshi, Zulfiqar Mirza, once an influential PPP leader, quit the party over a disagreement with Asif Zardari’s leadership and policies, mainly towards the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) in Sindh. He and his wife (Fahmida Mirza, the former speaker of the National Assembly) later founded the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA), a regionalist political alliance based in Sindh.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) disintegrated between November 2000 and March 2001, resulting in the establishment of the Pakistan Muslim League-Like Minded (PML-LM), which was later on renamed as the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q). This party was formed to support and prolong Gen Pervez Musharraf’s regime. This split reflected ideological differences and the varying positions of party members regarding their support for Musharraf.

The Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam (JUI) too has undergone disagreements and division. A notable split occurred in 2008, when Maulana Fazlur Rehman, expelled Maulana Sherani and other members who then formed another faction. The split resulted from ideological differences and leadership conflicts within the JUI.

This historical recap suggests that the split in the PTI is not exceptional. The process of its decline has followed the same trajectory as other parties. Both the PPP and the PML-N, survived the storm. The splinter groups dented them in the short term only and influenced the political landscape and the electoral outcomes on a small scale (except for the PML-Q). This brings up two pertinent questions: a) can the PTI survive the split; and b) how far can the splinter groups influence the electoral outcomes to the disadvantage of the PTI?

The PTI is currently the most popular political party. Its future depends on Imran Khan on the one hand and its relations with the establishment on the other. If Khan is disqualified and/ or put behind the bars or if the PTI is banned, the party might not survive.

The parties led by Jahangir Tareen and Pervez Khattak have not received the endorsement of the party’s youth, who remain loyal to Imran Khan. However, these parties may dent the PTI in a small way on account of their electables. They cannot directly confront Imran Khan and hope to prevail. However, they can emerge victorious if Khan is barred from contesting elections.

The PPP and the PML-N had fought resolutely and defeated the splinter groups, keeping their popularity and vote banks intact. The PTI is far more popular today than the PPP and the PML-N. It can similarly overcome and defeat the splinter groups if elections are free and fair and Imran Khan is not barred or disqualified. Therefore, while splinter groups do matter, they do so subject to the establishment patronage.

Mazhar Abbas has a PhD in history from Shanghai University. He is a lecturer at GCU, Faisalabad, and a research fellow at PIDE, Islamabad. He can be contacted at mazharabbasgondal87@gmail.com. He tweets at @MazharGondal87.

Imran Wakil has a PhD in international relations. He is a lecturer at GCU, Faisalabad