Central Asia, China and Pakistan

The economic potential of Pakistan’s large population, all-seasons sea access and the CPEC is substantial

Central Asia, China and Pakistan


W

hile G7 countries met in Hiroshima and discussed the so-called Chinese economic belligerence, Beijing hosted leaders of the Central Asian States in the first of its kind China-Central Asia Summit on May 18-19. The conference was organised in Xi’an, the traditional Silk Route starting point. The message was clear: China would forge ahead with its vision of regional development.

The Central Asian Republics became independent when the USSR disintegrated. However, the Russia Federation remained the big brother in the region, mainly on account of a shared language, culture and economic needs. With the Russian preoccupation with the Ukraine war, Moscow’s focus on Central Asia has grown weaker. China has strong reasons for filling the vacuum.

The United States and its allies are afraid of the pace at which China is rising in terms of economic muscle. Efforts are going on in the West to somehow retard the economic growth of China. Several strategies have been explored to accomplish this goal. Forums like Quad, AUKUS, G7, NATO, EU and Shangri-La Dialogue have resonated with the threat of China’s rise.

First there was an effort to limit China’s access to sea lanes. However, China came up with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which includes headways via both land and sea.

The Central Asian States are rich in energy resources. China has borders with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Land routes through these countries can provide it access to the rest of the Central Asia as well as to Europe. Last year, China’s trade with Central Asia exceeded $70 billion.

During the summit at Xi’an, presidents of five participating Central Asian States – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – vowed to revamp economic and political engagement with China and work together on projects leading to mutually beneficial trade. It was agreed that the trade volume be increased by undertaking projects like train services, gas pipelines and peaceful nuclear energy. The idea is to create better job opportunities for the local populace in each country.

It was realised that the economic rise of each nation will contribute to stability in the Central Asian region. The Xi’an Declaration said that multilateral cooperation was discussed and various avenues for investment, promotion of digital economy, agriculture, customs, animal and plant quarantine, cultural exchanges and industrial ventures were considered.

China has always been averse to external influence. Through direct engagement with the Central Asian Republics, it aims to elevate their strategic stature to a level where there is no room for external influence. Given a shared vision of future these states are likely to remain in the Chinese fold and add to its strategic strength.

So why has China resorted to direct engagement and not used the platform of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation of which all these states are members? A couple of reasons are noteworthy. One, due to Russia’s war with Ukraine, the strategic void in Central Asia was attractive for other actors, notably the United States. China does not want the US to be in its neighbourhood. Hence it was imperative for it to act quickly, decisively and magnanimously.

Gwadar is the jewel in the CPEC crown. There is a need for greater focus on the development of CPEC projects in Gwadar and elsewhere in Pakistan.

The other reason pertains to the SCO environment. Given the Indian belligerence towards both China and Pakistan headway via SCO may have been slow.

An SCO virtual summit is going to be held in July this year under the Indian presidency. Tensions between the powerful neighbours could reduce the SCO summit to a mere formality. China, meanwhile, means business. If progress is going to be stalled on one forum, it is willing to move ahead using other forums, even create new forums.

The Central Asian States do not wish to be drawn into great power rivalry. The economic dividends of a collaboration with China are lucrative. These are smaller and comparatively weak states and their leaders aspire for economic benefits for their people.

The economic engagement between these states and China can bring strategic stability in the region. In modern times, economically strong states can not only defend their own interests but also lend a hand to their neighbours in need. This reduces the chances of some extra-regional forces interfering in their domestic issues. Also, sound economies attract more investors.

There is a lot Pakistan can learn from the collaborations between Central Asian States and China. The CARs are optimising the benefits of their location even though some of them are landlocked. They have an abundance of gas reserves, yet are dependent on others for food. Being neighbours to an emerging economic giant they are conscious of the benefits that can accrue to them. Pakistan has an important geo-strategic location and is blessed with a variety of terrains, minerals, agricultural products, rivers and sea access.

Pakistan’s importance has been realised by China which has made the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) the flagship project of the BRI.

The CPEC is expected to contribute to Pakistan’s economy through infrastructure development, job creation, human resource development and trade. It is also a project of immense political significance.

There is a desire in various parts of the region to join the CPEC and make it more profitable. This has afforded political leverage to Pakistan in the regional context. Gwadar is the jewel in the CPEC crown. There is a need to focus more attention on the development of CPEC projects in Gwadar and elsewhere in Pakistan. The decision by the provincial government to declare Gwadar a Special Economic District is likely to give impetus to business activities in Gwadar.

As we mark the CPEC decade this year, we need to analyse and assess the progress since 2013. We must keep the CPEC on track and not allow it to lose momentum.

For a big leap, Pakistan needs not only the infrastructure projects but human resource development. People associated with the CPEC need to be equipped with the requisite expertise. The maritime component of the CPEC needs to be accorded the same importance as the land component.

The economic turmoil that Pakistan is going through requires a rethink of our economic priorities.

Now is the right time to revisit our past strategies and usher in the future.


The writer is a communication strategist at the Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad. She can be reached at reema.asim81@gmail.com

Central Asia, China and Pakistan