Lessons from a by-poll

In the by-poll held on June 16, the MQM-P retained the NA-240 Karachi constituency by a razor-thin margin of just 65 votes. The party managed to pull off a victory after trailing most of the night behind the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) which came very close to winning its first National Assembly seat.

There were many twists and turns throughout the night. First, the MQM-H took an early lead against the TLP and MQM-P. Then, TLP maintained a narrow lead over the MQM-P till the last few polling stations. The last eight polling stations, though, have a 65-vote victory margin to the MQM-P.

According to the results announced by the regional election commissioner, Nadeem Haider, the MQM-P’s Muhammad Abu Bakar won the by election after bagging 10,683 votes. The TLP candidate, Shahzada Shahbaz, was the close runner-up after securing 10,618 votes.

The MQM-H candidate, Syed Rafiuddin, obtained 8,383 votes while the PPP’s Nasir Rahim Lodhi polled 5,248 votes and the PSP’s Shabbir Qaimkhani was able to secure 4, 797 votes. Both the MQM-P and TLP witnessed a significant drop in their support while the PPP, MQM-H and PSP maintained their support base.

This result should be a matter of concern for the MQM-P. Even though it retains the seat with a narrow margin, its share of votes saw a significant drop. The party had won this seat in the 2018 general elections with a large margin of more than 30,000 votes. The TLP then too was a distant runner-up.

This election result shows that nothing can be taken for granted. The MQM-P was expecting to win this seat with a comfortable margin but seemingly failed to mobilize its voters in this constituency which is considered its stronghold.

It will be wrong to assume on the basis of a close election that TLP support has surged. The TLP has become what the JUP once was in Karachi, and will maintain a certain support base in some constituencies.

It was a nail biting finish to an election otherwise marred by low turnout, allegations of rigging, and violence. The low turnout of 8.38 per cent and violent clashes in which one life was lost and several others injured were the main highlights of this by-poll.

Only 43,388 votes out of 5, 29,855 total votes were cast. Nearly 92 per cent voters preferred to remain in their homes instead of going out to exercise their democratic right of voting. Essentially, they rejected all the contesting candidates and political parties. This should be a real matter of concern for all the political parties.

Women voters show least interest in the by-poll as only 5.42 per cent women voters turn up at polling stations. Younger voters also showed little or no interest in the elections. In the 2018 general elections, 1, 77,759 (37.38 per cent) of 475523 registered voters had polled their votes in this constituency.

There seem to be three main reasons behind this low turnout and lack of interest of voters. One reason is the decision of the PTI and JI to stay away from this by-poll. Both parties have a considerable vote bank in the constituency as they finished at the third and fourth place in 2018. Both parties got nearly 47,000 votes in the 2018 elections. MQM-London also ran a boycott campaign through social media which also played its role to keep some voters away from the polling stations.

The second reason seems to be the low profile of the candidates. No political big gun was in the running. The MQM-P put a relatively new candidate in the race. The weak candidates failed to mobilize their supporters in big numbers. It was a lackluster election campaign without much enthusiasm and interest. The election campaign failed to inspire the electorate or motivate them.

Both the MQM-P and the TLP have lost support in the constituency. The MQM-P’s votes fell from more than 61,165 in 2018 to 10,683 votes while the TLP dropped from 30,535 votes in 2018 to 10,618 votes in 2022. So the close election is the result of a drastic fall of support for the MQM rather than a huge surge for the TLP.

The third reason seems to be the disappointment of the electorate as a result of the recent hike in petrol prices and a new wave of commodity price hike. Many people were hoping that the new coalition government will bring down the prices of food and daily essentials.

Instead of bringing down the rising inflation and providing relief to already struggling people, the coalition government further burdened the people with a massive increase in the prices of petroleum products. This decision has shocked many. And the MQM-P has borne the brunt of this hike as the key coalition partner of the PDM government.

Eruption of violence also marred the by-poll. Despite declaring 203 out of 309 polling stations sensitive, law-enforcement failed to prevent this violence taking place. One life was lost and several others injured in the clashes that took place in the Landhi area between activists of the TLP and PSP. Both parties accused each other for the violent clashes. The police and Rangers too failed to intervene immediately.

We can learn necessary lessons from this by-poll experience to improve electoral management and ensure a peaceful, violence-free and transparent polling atmosphere for voters. The Election Commission of Pakistan and local administration including police and Rangers need to make better arrangements for polling day to prevent violence and to end the malpractices of polling staff and others in order to manipulate the results.

We need to discourage the use of violence and strong-arm tactics to manipulate and influence the elections. Karachi has seen the use of violence and strong-arm tactics during elections for more than three decades. This culture must come to an end.

The writer is a freelance journalist.