Increasing troubles

What is the future of agriculture in Pakistan? On one side, the actual growth figures for agriculture suggest that there is a slowdown in progress. On the other, a Washington-based think tank predicts that Pakistan is set for high-agricultural growth. Is it possible for both these scenarios to be reconciled? The government claims that agricultural growth will be under 1.9 percent this year, instead of the 3.8 percent expected growth. The SBP’s second quarterly report claims that major crops, such as cotton, rice and sugarcane – as well as some minor crops – are on decline. Does that mean that the 2019 Global Food Policy Report is wrong in claiming that the right kind of agricultural reform has already taken place in Pakistan?

Perhaps like many international reports on Pakistan written abroad, there seems to be something significant that the report is missing out on. The GFPR points to the drafting of several policies, including the National Food Security Policy, National Water Policy, National Climate Policy, as well as provincial agriculture and water policies, as proof that Pakistan is on the right track. On paper, it is possible to agree that there has been some serious thinking about the place of agriculture in Pakistan’s economic future, but much of this does not translate into effective implementation on the ground.

The gap between policy and implementation is crucial to understand why there is a greater chance of agricultural productivity shrinking in Pakistan, instead of the ‘hub of innovation’ that it could be. Much of the on-ground changes in the rural economy are not being taken into account; these changes include severe water stress, crop disease and uncertain pricing for crops. The report identifies the right focus areas: farm and non-farm rural employment, gender equality, environmental challenges, access to energy and good governance. However, most of these are good on paper, but something the state is not invested in pushing through.

The existence of a National Agricultural Emergency committee and the approval of the National Agricultural Emergency Programme in March is proof that there is recognition that something is going wrong, but the policy changes have been piecemeal, instead of being directing at the whole sector. Rural jobs still form 43 percent of overall employment, which is why it is important to highlight the need for a ‘decent employment agenda’ for the rural world, as well as policies to help smallholder farmers, which remain the bulk of rural producers in Pakistan. If the shrinking share of agriculture in the overall GDP is an indicator, there will be less, not more, focus on agriculture in the coming years. Complemented with the fact that agriculture remains severely threatened by natural disasters, as recent floods have shown, there is much more to be worried about.