Flood impact seen in reduced cotton arrivals in Punjab

LAHORE: Seed cotton arrivals are up year-on-year (YoY), driven by an overall robust trend, but Punjab’s crop appears to have taken a hit from recent floods.

Nearly two million bales of seed cotton have reached ginning factories across the country, representing a 0.57 million bales or 39.77 per cent increase compared to the same period last year, according to data compiled by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA). As of September 15, ginners reported 2.004 million bales of cotton against last year’s arrivals of 1.434 million bales, according to the corresponding flows.

The cotton arrivals figures reveal significant provincial disparities and trends in cotton production across Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan, contributing to the national output.Floods have inundated agriculture land on large area, particularly in Punjab, damaging crops, including cotton. Unlike previous month data, cotton arrivals appear largely affected by ongoing devastating floods in the province, according to the latest data.

The flow of cotton in Punjab province, however, did not show as much increase as seen in other provinces. In fact, the share of Punjab reduces significantly if compared with arrival data of Sindh province. Cotton arrivals were 0.69 million bales, which indicates a 28.14 percent increase year-on-year with Punjab’s last year data.

Conversely, as of September 15, cotton arrivals in Sindh province were 1.314 million bales, showing a massive 46.77 per cent increase YoY. Despite having larger area under cultivation than Sindh, comparative cotton arrival volume in Punjab shows a steep decline, which is being seen as a source of concern.

Balochistan represents a rosy picture as far as greater volume of cotton arrivals is concerned. The province recorded cotton arrivals of 0.075 million bales, showing 115.19 per cent jump against the last year’s corresponding flows.

The district-wise break up in Punjab notably reveal strong growth in Vehari with 0.113 million bales, Bahawalnagar (0.102 million bales) and Dera Ghazi Khan (0.094 million bales) districts, while others such as Lodhran and Muzaffargarh experienced shortfalls. Punjab’s contribution used to remain foundational to country’s cotton economy, though its volume trails behind Sindh and Balochistan as per latest report.

In Sindh, Sanghar led the province with 0.778 million bales, followed by Hyderabad (0.121 million bales) and Mirpur Khas (0.108 million bales). Sindh’s upward trajectory reflects improved agricultural practices and favourable climatic conditions, positioning it as the leading cotton-producing province in 2025.

Sindh’s top districts significantly outperform Punjab’s best in absolute numbers, especially Sanghar. Punjab’s lower-performing districts show a sharper drop-off, suggesting uneven distribution of cotton cultivation success and negative impact of floods. Keeping impact of floods aside, the disparity between top and bottom districts within each province highlights the need for targeted support, especially in irrigation, pest control and farmer incentives.

As per analysis of seed cotton prices, August 2025 cotton rates ranged from Rs7,209 (Hyderabad, Sindh) to Rs7,632 (Burewala, Punjab) per 40kg, registering a 1.15 per cent dip in Hyderabad and a 7.25 per cent decline in Burewala. According to official data, seed cotton, raw cotton and cotton yarn prices showed significant declines compared to August 2024.