The imperative of futuristics for Pakistan

In an era defined by rapid global transformation, the science of futuristics — the study of anticipating and preparing for future possibilities — holds immense value for a nation like Pakistan.

Positioned at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, Pakistan faces a unique confluence of geopolitical tensions, climate vulnerabilities, and economic challenges. By embracing futuristics, Pakistan can proactively predict global trends, adapt to emerging realities, and carve a sustainable and influential role for itself in the decades ahead.

Futuristics is not mere speculation; it is a multidisciplinary approach that integrates data analysis, scenario planning and trend forecasting to envision plausible futures. For Pakistan, this science offers a framework to address three critical domains: geopolitics, climate change, and economic dynamics. Each of these areas presents both risks and opportunities, and a forward-looking strategy can help Pakistan mitigate threats while capitalising on its strengths.

Pakistan’s geopolitical landscape is shaped by its proximity to India, China, Afghanistan and Iran, as well as its strategic position along the Arabian Sea. The rise of multipolar global power structures, with the US, China and Russia vying for influence, demands that Pakistan anticipate shifts in alliances and rivalries.

For instance, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, positions Pakistan as a key player in regional connectivity. Futuristics can help Pakistan model scenarios — such as a potential escalation of US-China tensions or India’s growing alignment with Western powers — and devise policies to maintain strategic autonomy.

Moreover, instability in Afghanistan and the evolving role of Iran under sanctions or post-sanctions scenarios require Pakistan to predict and prepare for cross-border impacts, including refugee flows, militancy and trade disruptions. By studying historical patterns and current diplomatic signals, Pakistan can use futuristics to strengthen its foreign policy, ensuring it remains a pivotal actor rather than a pawn in great power games.

Pakistan is among the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations, despite contributing minimally to global emissions. Rising temperatures, glacial melting in the Himalayas, and erratic monsoons threaten agriculture, water security, and urban infrastructure.

The 2022 floods, which submerged a third of the country and displaced millions, underscore the urgency of proactive planning. Futuristics enables Pakistan to model climate trajectories — such as a 2 degrees Celsius versus a 4 degrees Celsius warming scenario — and their cascading effects on food production, energy demands and population displacement.

For example, predictive models could guide investments in resilient infrastructure, such as flood-resistant urban planning in Karachi or sustainable irrigation in Punjab. Pakistan could also leverage its vulnerability to advocate for climate financing and green technology transfers on the global stage, turning a liability into diplomatic capital. By anticipating climate-driven migration from rural to urban areas, the government could also preempt social unrest and resource strain, fostering adaptive governance.

Pakistan’s economy, marked by a reliance on agriculture, remittances and textiles, faces disruption from automation, shifting trade patterns and energy transitions. Futuristics can illuminate pathways to diversify and modernise. The global pivot toward renewable energy, for instance, offers Pakistan a chance to harness its solar and wind potential, reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels. Predictive analysis could identify which industries — such as IT services or green manufacturing — will thrive in a digital, decarbonised world, allowing Pakistan to upscale the skill of its youthful workforce accordingly.

As global supply chains reconfigure post-pandemic and amid US-China decoupling, Pakistan could position itself as an alternative manufacturing hub, capitalising on CPEC’s infrastructure. Studying economic megatrends, such as the rise of the digital economy or the decline of traditional retail, would enable policymakers to craft incentives for entrepreneurship and foreign investment, ensuring Pakistan integrates into the future global market rather than being sidelined.

To operationalise futuristics, Pakistan must build institutional capacity. This includes establishing a dedicated Futures Research Unit within the government, collaborating with universities and think tanks to train analysts in predictive modelling, and fostering public-private partnerships to fund innovation. International cooperation — such as with China’s advanced AI capabilities or Europe’s climate expertise — could accelerate this process. Public awareness campaigns would also ensure societal buy-in, framing Futuristics as a tool for empowerment rather than an abstract exercise.

Adopting futuristics is not without hurdles. Resource constraints, political instability and a historical focus on short-term crises could impede long-term planning. Yet, these challenges underscore the need for a paradigm shift. By embedding futuristics into national strategy, Pakistan can transform uncertainty into opportunity, aligning its development with global currents rather than reacting to them.

The science of futuristics offers Pakistan a lens to foresee and shape its destiny amid geopolitical flux, climate crises and economic evolution. By predicting global trends and preparing accordingly, Pakistan can secure its sovereignty, protect its people and claim a leadership role in the 21st century. The time to act is now — before the future arrives unannounced.

The writer is a retired ambassador at large and a frequent television commentator on foreign affairs.