Punjab tells IRSA what caused water shortage

ISLAMABAD: The increasing Indus stem water losses and downstream Kotri water releases have exacerbated the water shortage situation, says the Punjab government.

In a letter written on March 21 (Friday) to the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), Punjab Irrigation Department has pinpointed unexpectedly high losses in Indus stem and increased downstream flows at Kotri which exacerbated the existing situation. “This has led to shortages that have exceeded the water deficit anticipated by the water regulator,” it said.

The Punjab government has asked IRSA to open TP (Taunsa-Punjnad) Link at Indus to provide water in Thal and Punjnad canals. Right now, Punjab is getting zero water releases from TP Link, and Muzaffargarh and Dera Ghazi Khan canals, the Irrigation Department said.

Director Regulation Irrigation Department built its case on how actual water losses in Indus stem and downstream Kotri water releases as of March 21 caused more water deficit than the shortage worked out by IRSA.

The letter said actual water losses in Indus stem have gone up to 1.60 MAF than anticipated loss of 1.20 MAF, showing an increase by 33 percent. The downstream Kotri releases in the ongoing Rabi season were worked out by IRSA at 0.065 MAF. But, actual releases stood at 0.47pc, showing an increase in water releases by 623pc.

Had the said Indus stem losses and surplus downstream Kotri flows (0.805 MAF) had been avoided, the resulting water shortage would have matched or fallen below IRSA’s anticipated levels, the letter said.

That’s why Punjab wants provision of canal water to Thal and Punjnad canals through TP Link, in accordance with Indent for Integrated Water Resource Management, the letter said. The Punjab Irrigation Department asked IRSA to take immediate and decisive action to curb increased losses in Indus stem and downstream flows at Kotri.

The letter also mentioned IRSA had declared a 16pc water shortage for Rabi 2024-25 season, allocating 16.680 MAF out of total 19.846 MAF for Punjab.

A comprehensive review of river losses in Indus stem, current inflow situation at the major rivers and reservoirs reveals different trends than anticipated at the time of allocation.

As of March 21, inflows at Kabul and Indus rivers are significantly above anticipation, while Mangla and Marala inflows are substantially below projected levels. Kabul and Indus River inflows are 12pc and 6pc above anticipation respectively. Mangla Dam and Chenab River inflows are 36pc and 15pc below anticipation respectively.

This difference underscores the need for prudent water management and reallocation strategies to optimise available resources and mitigate the impact of shortage on Punjab’s agricultural sector.

Tarbela Dam holds almost no storage, whereas Mangla Dam holds only 0.088 MAF, constituting only 1pc of its capacity. The deviation between projected inflows and actual reservoir levels presents a serious concern regarding water availability.

IRSA has recently anticipated an overall water shortage of 30pc to 35pc. Punjab has utilised 20pc less water than its allocated share, while Sindh has drawn 17pc less than its entitlement.