Country set to face sharp decline in cotton harvest

LAHORE: Pakistan is on track to experience one of its smallest cotton harvests in recent history for the ongoing 2024-25 season, primarily due to a significant drop in output from Punjab, a major cotton-producing province. The decline is further compounded by unfavourable weather conditions and persistently low crop prices, which have discouraged many farmers from investing in cotton cultivation.

According to the latest cotton arrival report from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), cotton arrivals stood at 4.893 million bales as of November 15, 2024, a 33.6 per cent decrease compared to the same period last year when 7.37 million bales were recorded. If the current trend continues, Pakistan’s cotton output could fall below 5.93 million bales -- lower than the 5.93 million bales produced in the 1984-85 season and well below the pre-flood 2022-23 production of 4.91 million bales.

Industry insiders are concerned that the textile sector’s demand for cotton may outpace local production, potentially leading to increased reliance on imports. While there is hope that cotton output could improve with late-season weather changes, the persistent low prices of cotton have led many farmers to lose interest in continuing their crops, diminishing the likelihood of a significant rebound.

The PCGA’s report also indicates that out of the total 4.893 million bales, 38,000 bales are allocated for export, with the current year’s fortnight flow recorded at 0.602 million bales, slightly higher than last year’s 0.576 million bales.

In an unexpected development, Sindh has surpassed Punjab in cotton arrivals for the first time. Sindh recorded 2.649 million bales, while Punjab reported 2.244 million bales. Sindh’s share now stands at about 54 per cent of the total cotton arrivals, compared to Punjab’s 45 per cent.

This shift is largely attributed to lower per-acre yields in Punjab, which traditionally grows more cotton but has been affected by poor agronomy and pest attacks.Notable contributors to cotton arrivals in Punjab include Rahim Yar Khan (301,000 bales), Bahawalpur (362,000 bales) and Bahawalnagar (547,000 bales), while in Sindh, major contributors include Sanghar (1.209 million bales), Sukkur (99,300 bales) and Dadu (37,380 bales).

In its forecast for the 2024-25 season, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has predicted a decline in Pakistan’s cotton production, estimating it at 5.55 million bales, a figure that reflects the sector’s ongoing struggles.

Several factors have contributed to this steep decline in cotton output. The area devoted to cotton cultivation has shrunk significantly as farmers increasingly shift to more profitable crops like sugarcane, rice and maize. Besides this, the country’s per-acre cotton yield remains about half the regional average. Pest infestations, such as whitefly and pink bollworm, along with the cotton leaf curl virus, have further exacerbated the decline. Climate change has also played a key role in disrupting weather patterns and affecting crop productivity.

Farmers are also grappling with a lack of access to certified seeds, which further hampers efforts to improve yields. The absence of effective crop advisory services has left many growers without the knowledge or resources to adopt more efficient farming practices.

As the 2024-25 cotton season unfolds, the outlook for Pakistan’s cotton industry remains bleak, with both local and global implications for the textile sector and the country’s agricultural economy.