IMF board approves $1.1bn for Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: The IMF’s executive board has approved completion of the second review and release of the third and last tranche of $1.1 billion for Pakistan under $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA). It was the second programme in the last eight years which was completed successfully. The first successful completion was done from 2013-16 under the last PMLN-led government and now the nine-month SBA programme has been completed.

The IMF Executive Board completed the second review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Pakistan, allowing for an immediate disbursement of SDR 828 million (around $1.1 billion), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion (about $3 billion).

The completion of the second and final review reflects the authorities’ stronger policy efforts under the SBA, which have supported the stabilisation of the economy and return of modest growth. To move Pakistan from stabilisation to a strong and sustainable recovery, the authorities need to continue their policy and reform efforts, including strict adherence to fiscal targets while protecting the vulnerable; a market-determined exchange rate to absorb external shocks; and broadening of structural reforms to support stronger and more inclusive growth.

On Monday, the Executive Board of International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the second and final review of Pakistan’s economic reform programme supported by the IMF’s Standby Arrangement (SBA). Pakistan’s 9-month SBA, approved by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, successfully provided a policy anchor to address domestic and external imbalances as well as a framework for financial support from multilateral and bilateral partners. The programme focused on (i) necessary fiscal adjustment and maintenance of debt sustainability via FY24 budget implementation; (ii) protection of critical social spending; (iii) buffering external shocks and eliminating FX shortages by returning to proper FX market functioning; (iv) making progress on disinflation by maintaining a tight monetary policy; and (v) furthering progress on structural reforms, focused on energy sector viability, SOE governance, and climate resilience.

Macroeconomic conditions have improved over the course of the programme. Growth of 2 percent is expected in FY24 given continued recovery in the second half of the fiscal year. The fiscal position continues to strengthen with a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP achieved in the first half of fiscal year 2024, well ahead of projections and putting Pakistan on track to achieve its end-FY24 target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP.

Inflation, while still elevated, continues to decline, and, with appropriately tight, data-driven monetary policy maintained, is expected to reach around 20 percent by end-June. Assuming ongoing sound policies and reform efforts, inflation should return to the SBP’s target with growth continuing to strengthen over the medium term. Gross reserves have increased to around $8 billion, up from $4.5 billion at the start of the programme, and are projected to continue being rebuilt over the medium term.

Following the Executive Board discussion, Antoinette Sayeh, Deputy Managing Director and Chair, made the following statement: “Pakistan’s determined policy efforts under the 2023 Standby Arrangement (SBA) have brought progress in restoring economic stability. Moderate growth has returned; external pressures have eased; and while still elevated, inflation has begun to decline. Given the significant challenges ahead, Pakistan should capitalise on this hard-won stability, persevering — beyond the current arrangement — with sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms to create stronger, inclusive, and sustainable growth. Continued external support will also be critical.

“The authorities’ revenue performance, as well as federal spending restraint, helped achieve a sizeable primary surplus in the first half of FY2024, in line with programme targets. Continued revenue mobilisation efforts and spending discipline at both federal and provincial levels remain critical to ensure that the primary surplus target is achieved. Beyond FY2024, continued fiscal sustainability and additional space for social and development spending depend on further mobilising revenues, especially from non-filers and undertaxed sectors, and on improving public financial management.

“The authorities have stabilised the energy sector’s circular debt over the course of the SBA through timely tariff adjustments and enhanced collection efforts. While these actions need to continue, it is also critical that the authorities undertake cost-side reforms to address the sector’s underlying issues and viability.

“The State Bank of Pakistan’s tight monetary policy stance remains appropriate until inflation returns to more moderate levels. Further improvements in the functioning of the foreign exchange (FX) market, together with a market-determined exchange rate, will help buffer external shocks and attract financing, thereby supporting competitiveness and growth. The significant rebuilding of FX reserves under the SBA needs to continue. Moreover, stronger action to address undercapitalized financial institutions and, more broadly, vigilance over the financial sector are needed to ensure financial stability.

“Achieving strong, long-term inclusive growth and creating jobs require accelerating structural reforms and continued protection of the most vulnerable through an adequately-financed Benazir Income Support Programme. Priorities include advancing the reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), including to ensure that all SOEs fall under the new policy framework; strengthening governance and anti-corruption institutions; and continuing to build climate resilience.”