News Analysis: Zardari set to cruise to victory in presidential poll

ISLAMABAD: As the presidential elections are scheduled to be held on Saturday (March 9), the ruling coalition has calculated that its candidate Asif Ali Zardari would get more than 400 electoral votes.

The ruling alliance has pitched former president and Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) chief Asif Ali Zardari against Pakhtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) head Mahmood Khan Achakzai backed by Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC).

The members of Senate and National Assembly would exercise their right to vote by secret ballot in the Parliament House, while polling for the presidential elections would also be held in the four provincial assemblies.

As many as 325 members of the National Assembly, 91 senators, 354 members of the Punjab Assembly, 157 members of the Sindh Assembly, 117 members of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly and 65 members of Balochistan Assembly would cast their vote.

The ruling coalition parties, the PPP, PMLN, PMLQ, Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP), National Party and Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) and MQM have declared their support for Asif Ali Zardari while PTI-backed SIC and Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen have assured their support to Achakzai. Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUIF), Jamaat-e-Islami and Akhtar Mengal of Balochistan National Party (BNPM) have announced they will abstain from voting in the presidential elections.

Parliamentary sources have reviewed the party position in the National Assembly, Senate and four provincial assemblies, and how many votes each presidential candidate is likely to get.

Zardari is likely to get more or less 202 votes from the National Assembly – the number secured by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in his election – PMLN’s 108 votes, PPP’s 67 votes, MQM-Pakistan 22, PMLQ’s 5, IPP’ 4, and one vote of National Party. Achakzai is expected to get 92 votes from the SIC and independent candidates, and one vote each from the PkMAP and Majlis Wahdat al-Muslimeen, making it 94 votes.

If the political developments so far are taken into consideration, , JUIF’s 11 votes and one vote each of PML-Zia and BNPM in the National Assembly would not be used in favour of any candidate. According to initial calculations, from Senate Zardari is likely to get 21 votes of PMLN, 18 of PPP, nine of BAP, two of National Party, two of Awami National Party, three of MQM, and five votes of independent senators, making it 54 votes from the Upper House of Parliament.

Achakzai is likely to get a total of 26 votes in the Senate that include 25 votes from the PTI and one of PKMAP. JUIF’s four votes, and Jamaat-e-Islami’s one vote would not be cast.

From the Punjab Assembly, Zardari is likely to get 43 electoral votes while Achakzai may bag 19.

From the Sindh Assembly, Zardari is expected to get around 60 votes, while Achakzai may get three.

From the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly, the ruling alliance’s candidate is expected to get six votes and the SIC candidate may get 43, while the JUIF may not cast its vote.

From Balochistan Assembly, Zardari is expected to get 48 electoral votes and Achakzai score is likely to be two votes, while 15 electoral votes of the JUIF may not be cast. According to procedure of voting in the presidential election, each senator, MNA and MPA is given one ballot paper to cast their vote on which the names of the candidates are listed alphabetically. The presidential election is held by secret balloting.

After that each ballot paper is signed by the presiding officer, the result of the presidential election is announced by the chief election commissioner.

The president-elect takes the oath of his office from the Chief Justice of Pakistan for the next five years. Meanwhile, Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz has invited PMLN and coalition parties’ MPAs to a lunch today (Friday).

After the Friday prayer, there will be a meeting of the parliamentary party in which the members of the assembly will be briefed regarding the presidential election. According to sources , Chairman PPP Bialwal Bhutto Zardari is also likely to attend luncheon meeting hosted by Maryam .