Return of Sharif?

Will we see the original Sharif back in Pakistan soon? Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif seems to want him back – at least as far as a public position goes. The prime minister has urged his brother and PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif to return to Pakistan to lead the election campaign of the party and become the PM for the fourth time. He made this appeal during a central general council meeting of the party where – in keeping with the ‘all in the family’ tendency of the party – Shehbaz was re-elected as the president of the PML-N and Maryam Nawaz was elected chief organiser and senior vice president. Many PML-N leaders are now claiming that Nawaz will be back soon and there are speculations whether he will come after Eid, or in August and some say September. The month of his return is not yet confirmed but media reports say that he will return before the elections.

Ever since Nawaz left for London in 2019, there have been speculations over when the former PM will return to the country. During the previous PTI regime, his party had advised him not to return due to Imran Khan’s vengeful politics. But after the successful vote of no-confidence (VoNC), many wondered why Nawaz wasn’t returning now that his own brother was the premier. There was a sense that the unpopularity of the current PDM regime due to rising inflation and the popularity of Imran post-VoNC may have prompted Nawaz to stay put rather than returning to take the burden of this unpopularity. Another reason, some say, was the perception of a pro-Imran judiciary that would target Nawaz.

Today, though, that past is a whole other country: the PDM is in ascendancy (whether hybrid or not), and the unfavourables are quickly turning to favourables. With Project Imran effectively abandoned, the cards seem stacked in favour of the return of Punjab’s once-favourite son. The return of Nawaz Sharif has been anticipated for months now, with the general feeling that somehow he is that one uniting force that can turn around the PML-N’s fortunes. That may be debatable though, given the current economic situation and the way Finance Minister Ishaq Dar is perceived to be a Nawaz Sharif insistence in the cabinet. However, Punjab’s vote bank has always been ‘Mian Sahib’s’ turf – at least till the PTI disruption this past year or so. Despite everything, political observers say that Nawaz is the one PML-N leader who unites both the party and the voter base. He is likeable and also not a divisive figure. The PML-N is already seen to be divided into pro-Shehbaz and pro-Maryam camps but Nawaz brings all groups together effortlessly and without any bitterness. In the predicted absence of Imran Khan in the next elections, Punjab stands effectively leaderless and for the PMl-N – given the current economic strife – Nawaz is needed to motivate his voters to come out and and vote so that the PML-N isn’t affected by Jahangir Tareen’s party or the PML-Q or even the PPP. Whatever the reasons for his return, nawaz comes back to a different country, with a different vote base, a different demographic. Will Mian Sahib’s magic work this time around? And will we see a fourth-time PM? Or will he stay in the shadows as his daughter claims her place in the power structures of the country? Too many questions that can only be answered if the elder Sharif decides to return, something that has been talked of previously as well but never materialized.