WASHINGTON: It is not hard to think of reasons why the “Trump Peace Agreement” will fail. The first stage requires the release of Hamas’s hostages and Israel’s prisoners, a very partial withdrawal by the Israel Defense Forces, and more aid getting into Gaza. Aid convoys must navigate their way through rubble full of unexploded ordnance.
Hamas is still in charge of Gaza City and is again predictably in the absence of any stronger force. If they manage to hold on to their weapons, then Israel will have an excuse to keep the IDF in place, ready to renew hostilities.
To move the process forward, the most urgent requirement is to get the international stabilisation force in place and bring some law and order to the Strip. The longer it takes, the more desperate and frustrated the Gazan people will become. Without this, and without Hamas disarming, aid will remain hard to distribute and a new transitional authority will not be able to get on with recovery and reconstruction. US Central Command in Doha will have a role in the introduction of the force, although no American troops will be involved.
As always with Trump, the rhetoric is as hyperbolic as the details are sketchy. And as always with Trump, there is also a suspicion that despite the early results and the immediate boost to his prestige, if the process starts to falter, he will get bored and move on to his next grand project. The “Trump Peace Agreement” is a landmark deal, shaped by regional shifts and Trump’s decision to sideline Israel’s control. Netanyahu, unable to end the Gaza war due to internal divisions, relied on US support but misjudged Trump’s volatility. A critical September 9, 2025, Israeli strike on Hamas leaders in Doha angered Qatar, forcing Trump to back Qatar’s mediation role over Israel, leading to a deal Netanyahu couldn’t claim as his own. In Trump’s first term, the Palestinian issue faded amid the Syrian civil war and Iran’s threat. Obama’s 2015 Iran nuclear deal, opposed by Israel and Gulf states, was abandoned by Trump in 2017, escalating Iran’s uranium enrichment and regional attacks. The Abraham Accords, a key Trump achievement, normalised Arab-Israeli ties, but Biden’s efforts to expand them stalled.
