Recent forecasts suggest that temperatures in Pakistan could hit 50 degrees Celsius, potentially nearing the global April record set in 2018 in Nawabshah, as a severe heatwave grips South Asia.
According to a recent report by The Washington Post, the central and southern regions of the country have already experienced sweltering conditions, reaching 47°C last weekend.
This extreme weather, fuelled by a powerful high-pressure system, has prompted the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) to issue a heatwave advisory from April 26 to 30, urging residents to take precautions.
Weather historian Maximiliano Herrera, who tracks global temperature extremes, confirmed that the 2018 Nawabshah reading remains the highest April temperature recorded in Asia.
An April reading of 51°C in Santa Rosa, Mexico, during 2001 may not be reliable.
The oppressive heat is being generated by a significant high-pressure system acting like a lid, trapping warm air across a vast area stretching from the Middle East into South Asia.
This region has already witnessed unusually high temperatures for April in recent years, a trend consistent with a warming global climate where heat extremes are becoming increasingly pronounced.
Weather models indicate that the peak of this heatwave in Pakistan is expected on Wednesday and Thursday, with one of the world's most reliable models, the ECMWF, predicting maximum temperatures around 48°C in central parts of the country, The Washington Post reported.
Notably, this model slightly underestimated the high temperatures experienced last weekend, suggesting that the actual temperatures this week could reach temperatures lower than 50°C.
The impact of this heatwave is widespread, with forecasts indicating temperatures exceeding 43°C in a total of 21 countries this week.
These include Pakistan, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Mauritania, India, Iraq, Qatar, Sudan, United Arab Emirates, Oman, South Sudan, Bahrain, Mali, Senegal, Chad, Ethiopia, Niger, Eritrea, Nigeria and Burkina Faso.
Furthermore, the unusually hot air mess is predicted to shift eastward towards China later in the week. Simultaneously, a new heatwave is expected to build across Central Asia, with temperatures in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan expected to climb above 37°C.
Pakistan has already experienced temperatures more than four degrees Celsius above the April average, the data indicates, even before the current intense heatwave.
Iraq recorded its highest April temperature on record at 46°C, while the UAE also reached a record 46°C. Turkmenistan has been particularly anomalous, experiencing temperatures over seven degrees Celsius above the average for April.
Niger also reported a national record of 45°C.
So far in April, 63% of the planet has experienced above-average temperatures, while only 37% has been cooler than average.
A significant 116 countries have been warmer than usual, compared to just 39 with cooler conditions.
Despite the dissipation of a strong El Nino event, which contributed to a record-breaking warm year in 2024, a subsequent La Nina event early this year has not brought the cooling effect observed in the past.
The period from January to March this year was the second-warmest on record globally, only surpassed by 2024.Asia, recent forecasts indicate a possibility for the mercury in Pakistan to reach the global April record of 50 degrees Celsius, a mark previously reached in April 2018 by Nawabshah.
According to The Washington Post, this forecast follows a recent rise in temperatures in the central and southern regions of the country, reaching a staggering 47°C last weekend.
This intense heat, fueled by a sprawling dome of high pressure, has prompted warnings across the country.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issued a heatwave advisory spanning April 26 to 30, urging the public to take necessary precautions.
Weather historian Maximiliano Herrera, who maintains a meticulous list of monthly global temperature extremes, confirmed Nawabshah’s 2018 reading as the highest ever recorded in April across Asia.
An April reading of 51°C in Santa Rosa, Mexico, during 2001 may not be reliable.
The oppressive heat is being generated by a significant high-pressure system acting like a lid, trapping warm air across a vast area stretching from the Middle East into South Asia.
This region has already witnessed unusually high temperatures for April in recent years, a trend consistent with a warming global climate where heat extremes are becoming increasingly pronounced.
When, where it will be warmest
Weather models indicate that the peak of this heatwave in Pakistan is expected on Wednesday and Thursday, with one of the world's most reliable models, the ECMWF, predicting maximum temperatures around 48°C in central parts of the country, The Washington Post reported.
Notably, this model slightly underestimated the high temperatures experienced last weekend, suggesting that the actual temperatures this week could reach temperatures lower than 50°C.
The impact of this heatwave is widespread, with forecasts indicating temperatures exceeding 43°C in a total of 21 countries this week.
These include Pakistan, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Mauritania, India, Iraq, Qatar, Sudan, United Arab Emirates, Oman, South Sudan, Bahrain, Mali, Senegal, Chad, Ethiopia, Niger, Eritrea, Nigeria and Burkina Faso.
Furthermore, the unusually hot air mess is predicted to shift eastward towards China later in the week. Simultaneously, a new heatwave is expected to build across Central Asia, with temperatures in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan expected to climb above 37°C.
Record-breaking April temperatures
Pakistan has already experienced temperatures more than four degrees Celsius above the April average, the data indicates, even before the current intense heatwave.
Iraq recorded its highest April temperature on record at 46°C, while the UAE also reached a record 46°C. Turkmenistan has been particularly anomalous, experiencing temperatures over seven degrees Celsius above the average for April.
Niger also reported a national record of 45°C.
So far in April, 63% of the planet has experienced above-average temperatures, while only 37% has been cooler than average.
A significant 116 countries have been warmer than usual, compared to just 39 with cooler conditions.
Despite the dissipation of a strong El Nino event, which contributed to a record-breaking warm year in 2024, a subsequent La Nina event early this year has not brought the cooling effect observed in the past.
The period from January to March this year was the second-warmest on record globally, only surpassed by 2024.
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