Constructive developments overtake disruptive possibilities

ISLAMABAD: The demand of snap polls, likelihood of blocking election to half of the Senate in March by means of dissolution of a provincial assembly, possible resignation of a certain set of federal and provincial lawmakers to create a crisis and probability of engineering a technocrats’ government have essentially shrunk due to various striking developments in a quick succession.

Importantly, through the recent amendment (that is yet to be assented by the president, which is just a formality after its approval by the Senate and the National Assembly) it has been written in the Constitution that the next elections will be held in 2018, thus making holding of polls next year mandatory. Any deviation from it will be a constitutional violation. The amendment provided that for the purposes of the next general elections to be held in 2018 and by-elections thereto, the allocation (of seats in the National Assembly) shall be made on the basis of the provisional results of the 2017 census which shall be published by the federal government.

The change has primarily earmarked seats, reducing the same for Punjab and enhancing it for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Balochistan and the federal capital. Additionally, the provisional results of the population census 2017 have been provided one-time constitutional validation for the purpose of organizing the upcoming elections.

On the face of it, all roads now lead to the grand electoral contest in July after the incumbent assemblies will complete their obligatory five-year terms. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is fully geared up to put in place every arrangement to organise the forthcoming polls on time. It has got sufficient time to make elaborate preparations for the clash.

The next tricky phase that will see a lot of jockeying will come a few weeks before the automatic, scheduled dissolution of the legislatures through official notifications to be issued by the concerned parliamentary affairs ministries on the expiration of their tenures when the prime ministers, provincial chief ministers and leaders of opposition in all the assemblies will hold consultations for selection of the caretaker setups to have a sixty-day life each.

As all eyes are set on the approaching electoral scramble and political parties worth the name are bracing up to participate in it, the politics of sit-ins seems to have taken a backseat and pushed in the background. The effort of Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) chief Allama Tahirul Qadri, on prodding from some political nonentities, which have no electoral future, to create a scene by undertaking an agitation has apparently run out of steam and is unlikely to be whole-heartedly supported by those political forces, which saw some prospects in the impending polls.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan has been calling for early elections arguing that the government has lost legitimacy and vibrancy. This is not a new demand as he has been issuing it time and again after the 2013 polls. However, the fast developments have ostensibly prevailed upon him to close his eyes to this desire. He has now urged the ECP to quickly carry out delimitation of constituencies. He believes that in KP that his party is ruling, the PTI will get more federal and provincial seats in next polls than 2013’s tally now when the number of seats of this province has gone up due to fresh allocation.

Even otherwise not a single political party had backed his demand for quick polls. He had turned out to be a solitary voice in this regard. Rather every party vehemently rejected it. Besides, the government was never paid even a slight heed to his call. Had Imran Khan been serious in voicing this demand, he would have got the KP assembly disbanded first. It is a hard fact that Chief Minister Pervez Khattak has never bought such idea.

For some time, there was a lot of talk of premature dissolution of the KP assembly by the PTI to obstruct the Senate election in March so as to deprive the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) from improving on its present numerical strength in the upper house. This possibility has also now faded away by a series of critical events. The PTI would be robbed of the opportunity of almost doubling its current Senate seat if Imran Khan chooses to wrap up the provincial assembly.

There was also a possibility that as a last resort to rock the government and the democratic system, the PTI may use the resignation card. This prospect doesn’t seem relevant any more as numerous phenomena have overtaken any such adventure. A potential technocrats’ arrangement with at least three-year tenure was also being bandied about over the past few months as is done before every parliamentary poll. This was basically premised on the failure of the Senate to pass the constitutional amendment providing for delimitation of constituencies etc., but this desire has also been knocked down after the approval of the alteration by the upper house.

PML-N President and ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s announcement, nominating Shahbaz Sharif as the party’s prime minister after the 2018 elections, has also helped quell a host of speculations, assumptions and wishful thinking. Most political parties specifically his rivals have apparently viewed this pronouncement with immense interest, believing that the elections have become certain in 2018.