Whether the MQM will survive as a party after the fresh differences between Dr Farooq Sattar and Aamir Khan have sharpened, and contesting the next elections on the same election symbol and flag depend on the final outcome of these divisions in the party and the alleged outside pressure.
While the MQM-London chapter is practically closed and its previous venues would either be demolished or the places like Khursheed Memorial Hall be converted into a Library, Karachi's politics may be see a complete change unless something dramatic happens.
The MQM, already divided in four groups, may see another split in a week unless the party leadership succeed in the last ditch effort to remove the differences between its head Farooq Sattar and No 2 Aamir Khan. Their camps are so divided that they are not even sure about the outcome and their differences may also bleak their chances to get one or two Senate seats by March 2018.
The immediate beneficiary of this split will be PPP, as some of its leaders already holding negotiations with them for the next Senate elections. And PSP’s Mustafa Kamal would certainly like to see further split and elections minus-MQM.
In what looks like a last ditch effort to save MQM-Pak, the Rabita Committee has formed a four-member panel to remove differences between the two top leaders, which emerged in the aftermath of Farooq Sattar's patch up attempt with Mustafa Kamal and Anis Qaimkhani, allegedly on behest of the third party – the establishment.
For the first time since Aug 22, the MQM is facing serious organisational and discipline issues and the party leadership has not been able to overcome the crisis as yet, resulting in defections with many of its leaders and workers had joining the PSP.
Well-informed party sources disclosed that the centre of controversy is MQM Deputy Convener Kamran Tessori who had joined the party on Farooq Sattar’s request about a year ago after being allowed by Pir Pagara to quit PML-F.
The question is what was so significant about the man. He remained associated with the PML-F for four, five years, but had family terms with Farooq Sattar. One of the reasons of his joining the party is said to be his close contacts with the ‘third party’.
Sources close to him further claim that he played an important role in getting some pressure released from the MQM-Pak and Farooq Sattar, after the latter was forced to wind up MQM and join the PSP. The MQM in post-Aug 22 scenario has been unable to open its sector and units officers, but the sources say Kamran Tessori played his role in not only providing financial support to the party but getting the Bahadurabad office and arranging regular meetings with the third party to convince them to allow the MQM to function as separate party with same election symbol and flag.
What happened during the last few weeks has resulted in Kamran Tessori’s resignation as some MQM leaders – including Aamir Khan and Khawaja Izharul Hasan – blamed him for allowing Farooq Sattar to change the party constitution and bringing Farooq Sattar and Mustafa Kamal on the same page. They indirectly accused Farooq Sattar of giving too much importance to him.
Things went from bad to worse when he was not allowed to make a speech at the Nov 5 public meeting in Liaquatabad despite been assured by Farooq Sattar,. There was exchange of harsh words between him and Aamir Khan and Tessori was quoted as saying to the MQM leader that it was he who had cleared his name from the establishment's 'blacklisted leaders’.
It led to his resignation and his return came only on personal intervention of Farooq Sattar and his family on the condition that Aamir Khan should apologise for his conduct. This was followed by a show-cause notice and explanation from the deputy convener. In the last meeting of Rabita Committee, in which both sides presented their view point, a committee was formed.
The crisis in the post Kamal-Sattar meeting gave a new boost and hope to the PSP which suddenly speeded up its attack on the MQM. And after Farooq Dr Sattar's successful shows in Liaquatabad and Hyderabad, the PSP is now going for a grand show at the same venue at Karachi's Liaquatabad on Dec 24, where the MQM held its rally.
What we have witnessed in the last six months is something unprecedented in our politics. Now political leaders proudly claim that they are close to the establishment and could resolve party's crisis.
It was surprising that the proactive role played by PTI leader Faisal Vawda to an extent that at one stage he had reportedly even warned Farooq Sattar of consequences if he did not merge his party with the PSP.
On the contrary, Imran Khan has given him the task of arranging meetings with Mustafa Kamal and he is now the key negotiator between the two.
There are reports that PTI, PSP and GDA [Grand Democratic Alliance] are holding negotiations for an anti-PPP and anti-MQM front before the next general elections. If this happens, it may lead to fresh negotiations between PPP and MQM-Pak, provided the latter survives as a party.
Although the MQM senior leadership is quite optimistic about resolving their internal differences soon and confident about the elections outcome as reflected from Karachi and Hyderabad public meetings, they concede that unlike in 2013 elections – when the MQM never faced such organisational difficulties because of the chain of command – it will take time for the party to behave like a normal political entity.
Whether the MQM survives or not or whether we may witness something new in Karachi and the urban Sindh politics in the next few months, one thing is certain: the future political scenario of Sindh will be quite managed and controlled.
In the next general elections, we may see different narrative of Mohajir politics from the Mohajir leaders. How much impact they will be able to bring on the Mohajir voters would be interesting to watch.
Interesting days ahead in Sindh's politics and irrespective of what will happen in Islamabad or in Punjab, as the MQM has a challenge to survive with one name or two or three, but will it survive with same election symbol and flag sis till a million-dollar question as things are unfolding fast.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang
Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO
