Amazing convergence of international community in favour of political settlement of the Afghanistan problem is very welcoming development that is rarity in the world politics with intense competing state interests.
This prevailing convergence is likely to mount added pressure on Taliban leadership to seek negotiated settlement anticipating their military takeover of the country may certainly push the world to withhold its recognition to the ‘government-in-waiting’. Almost all the major world players see win-win situation in the Afghan-led and Afghan-owned solution of the imbroglio. Evidently, the political settlement of Afghanistan issue, by and large, fits in ‘Big Powers’ strategic interests in general and security concerns in particular apprehending the chaos and anarchy in Afghanistan may result in fierce blowback with overwhelming negative overtones to the peace and security across the board. The convergence is not logic defying either because the civil war in Afghanistan may surely create an enabling environment in providing safe havens to the transnational terrorist outfits in the troubled country to regroup, plan and execute terrorist attacks all over the world. Doha Peace agreement, in the sordid eventuality, may dissipate in the thin air to the utter disenchantment of the international community that is so keen to see the dawn of peace in Afghanistan after two decades of war of attrition.
Pakistan may face the worst of aftermaths of troubles in Afghanistan as TTP is likely to have freer hand to unleash terror in the country in pursuit of its regressive ideology. China and Russia and the Central Asian republics had suffered in the past at the hands of religious militants and the threat was still looming that might become larger in the future if Taliban and Kabul government failed to clinch the political settlement. The US and European Union also had faced the religious terrorism forcing their direct and indirect military interventions around the world. But, arguably, they had failed to wipe out the menace meaningfully at whatever angel one looked at.
The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan without winning the war was being perceived as the classic case of ‘cut and run’ equating with the failure of the use of military power in foreign countries. It may be recalled the then Soviet Union also had to face the same fate of its military intervention into Afghanistan. Its subsequent fragmentation should open the eyes of the expansionist and hegemonistic powers to learn the lesson of never to contemplate to impose military solution anywhere in the world. The grim situation as unfolding in Afghanistan is ghastly disappointing and problematic because Taliban are on the juggernaut to impose military solution that will certainly lead to the civil war in the country. On the other hand, the demoralised Kabul government is desperately looking for outside help to contain the advances of Taliban. The Ghani government in Kabul that remains in the saddle with the support of the foreign troops has been grappling to mobilise international support to prod Taliban to seek redemption in political settlement. The US President Biden has made it abundantly clear to the Taliban leadership that US will not allow them to impose their military solution clearly purporting the use of US air force to stop Taliban from capturing the major and strategic cities of Afghanistan.
In fact, US had already resorted to air bombing in the recent past explicitly expressing its intent not to turn its back on Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the US troops. The situation in Afghanistan may be increasingly becoming fluid turning it into Hobbesian state of nature ‘where all are against all’.
The US resolve not to let cow down the Ghani government militarily may surely put an added pressure on Taliban leadership to endeavour sincerely to pursue the political settlement of the problem. Taliban should realize that merely playing to the gallery in seeking negotiated settlement as per Doha Peace agreement may wear thin soon because now time may not be on their side for playing out hemming and hawing. Their misplaced expectations rooted in their misplaced overconfidence sprouting out from the battle fields may surely not accrue the overall victory on all fronts as the international community is opposed to the military solution of the Afghanistan problem.
The international community has been urging the Taliban leadership to go for power-sharing arrangement to put the country on the trajectory of peace. This course of action is in the best interest of the Afghan people and indeed in the interest of the neighbouring countries and beyond. China also urged the Taliban leadership to seek political settlement when the Taliban delegation met the Chinese foreign minister on the invitation of Chinese government.
Earlier, the Taliban delegation also attended summit in Russia where the consensus was in favour of political settlement. The international community’s insistence clearly implies that the government formed in the country on gunpoint will not be acceptable.
God forbid, if civil war erupts in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran may face the blowback in the form of influx of Afghan refugees and surge in terrorist activities in KPK and Balochistan consisting major Pashtun population. The TTP is largely a Pashtun-dominated outfit. Karachi, the commercial hub of Pakistan, has a very large population of Pashtuns and influx of the refugees is likely to exacerbate environment there as well. Realizing the gravity of the unfolding situation in the neighbouring country, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto has asked the Sindh chief minister to take steps to blunt the blowback of the Afghanistan situation in Karachi in particular and indeed in the whole province.
Ironically, Pakistan government, however, seems showing no sign of urgency and indeed may be waiting for the chips fall, where they may.
In this connection, the first thing the ruling party should be doing is to forge political unity within the country.
Strangely, the PTI leadership is totally allergic to the idea of indispensability of uniting the nation even when clouds of militancy are thickening over the horizon. It has rather opted for creating many fault lines in the political landscape of the country to the collective disappointment of the nation.
The prime minister’s assertion in favour of political settlement of Afghanistan issue may indeed reflects his contradiction when reviewed in the context of politics within the country where political approach has been relegated to the backburner replacing it with politics of victimisation and witch-hunting.
No war can be won without the total support of people of the country. The time is right to jettison the party politics in favour of national politics. If not, ‘beware of ides of March’. The resistance to the ground realities may run into sand creating inhospitable scenario for the undertakers.
The establishment may like to convince the ruling party to mend fences with the Opposition parties because a politically polarised nation is like a divided house that cannot withstand the normal aftershocks what to speak of meeting challenges threatening national security.
The near completion of the fencing of Pak-Afghan border may surely help bolster the capacity of the security agencies to meet the challenges effectively.
muhammadshaheediyahoo.com