The people of the country, and the commercial sector – notably in Sindh – are already facing a crisis as far as electricity goes. In some parts of Karachi loadshedding of up to 7 to 10 hours a day has been reported on Monday, Tuesday, and days prior to that. There is a risk that this could increase, notably over a period of time when gas supply in the country falls even further. Added to this is the shortage of LNG due to poor planning on the part of the government. Added to the LNG crisis is the shortage of local gas, and added to the gas shortage is the shortage of furnace oil. Once one can get one’s head around this unbelievable situation, it becomes clear that essentially there is no way to produce sufficient electricity to meet the country's needs at a time when demand is at its peak. It is also true that nothing was done in advance to ensure that these three means of producing electricity and supplying the commercial sector did not come together at one particular point in time. We have seen such poor planning before leading to extremely adverse results on both the domestic and commercial sectors in the country, as gas supplies fell during the winter.
The problem arises from the maintenance work being carried out at two gas fields in Sindh, which have been temporarily closed for the purpose. At the same time, the Engro energy terminal is due for dry docking or maintenance work which is carried out once every five years. It was intended to be completed in 2020, but the Covid crisis held it back. As required Engro had informed the government a year in advance in 2019. In 2021, it now has to send the power plant overseas, for the LNG plant to be overhauled. In the meanwhile, a plant from abroad is meant to reach Pakistan. However, there could be a lag of between five and seven days between these events, and during this period, there is a danger of a severe electricity crisis hitting the country. Also providing electricity through furnace oil is extremely expensive and will only increase the existing circular debt which is already high. The consumers will of course, be the key sufferers of all this.
The issue could easily have been avoided by planning things better and ensuring that the maintenance work at local gas fields and the Engro LNG terminal did not coincide. Already gas supply to the non-export sector in Sindh has slowed down, with corporates saying they are receiving no gas which is badly affecting their work. They also complain that the gas shortage should be divided equally across the country and not imposed on Sindh alone at least as a primary place where gas has been cut off. There are possible solutions with the Pakistan GasPort Consortium Limited offering to supply its surplus LNG gas to the country. This offer has been made before but not taken up by the government. We do not see other planning in place either, as was the case during the winter, and this only leaves consumers apprehensive as to what is to come – with some fearing loadshedding of up to 12 hours in some parts of the country as the upcoming crisis deepens. Be it supplies from furnace oil, hydropower, or LNG, all needed acute attention prior to summer months and detailed plans for uninterrupted supplies should have been chalked out. Looking at the various such crises that have unfolded over the past year or so, it is glaringly obvious that competence is a huge challenge for the current government. What is needed now is better development and management of annual delivery plans, which has been a neglected area. Whenever an annual delivery plan is developed it must be binding, keeping in mind all the pitfalls that are likely to occur during various peak times in power demand. This the government can do only by following operational norms to ensure coordination among all stakeholders. And that only be done when sheer incompetence – as has been seen in this case – is punished rather than rewarded.