A new report released by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation last Friday brings some numbers to the devastation that climate disasters have wreaked on the world’s farms, farmers and food systems. As per the report, disasters have inflicted an estimated $3.26 trillion in agricultural losses between 1991 and 2023, with cereal crops bearing the heaviest burden at 4.6 billion tonnes of losses, followed by fruits and vegetables (2.8 billion tonnes). Meat and dairy have lost 900 million tonnes. Predictably, much of this damage has been concentrated in the Global South, with lower-middle-income countries facing the highest relative losses at 5.0 per cent of agricultural GDP. Regional analysis demonstrates that Asia shoulders the heaviest burden at 47.0 per cent of global losses ($1.53 trillion), both a reflection of its large agricultural sector and its heightened exposure to climate risks. These losses have a direct impact on the quality of life of people, with losses in production resulting from disasters corresponding to a reduced availability of 320 kcal per person per day globally. In short, climate disasters are now emerging as a major hurdle for countries like Pakistan when it comes to solving problems like food insecurity. While the report points to newer and more localised risk forecasting tools in agriculture, powered by AI and machine learning, it will be some time before such tools become widely accessible in poorer countries.
Pakistan also has its digital gap to consider when it comes to such solutions, with rural areas being far more likely to have poorer internet connections and less overall technological access. Focusing specifically on the country, the report reveals that, merely a year after the 2022 flood catastrophe, the 2023 monsoon affected nine million people and destroyed 849,000 hectares of crops. This will come as a surprise to most of the country, with 2022 and this year generally thought to be the most devastating monsoon years in the current decade. While this year is beyond the period covered in the report, the Ministry of Finance revealed on the same day as the release of the report that this year’s floods caused an estimated economic loss of $2.9 billion. This led to a projected reduction in the GDP growth rate for FY2026 by 0.3 to 0.7 per cent. Agriculture suffered the largest share of the losses and the floods also exerted upward pressure on inflation, pushing it up to 5.6 per cent in September from 3.0 per cent in August. The cost of living is another problem that now seems to be inextricably intertwined with climate change and the disasters it brings.
Suffering such large losses every year is simply not sustainable. Who will want to farm in a climate like this? Those who grow the nation’s food are already having to deal with problems like urban sprawl, water scarcity and economic and social injustice. Add devastating seasonal floods to the mix and it becomes clear that anyone who can afford to abandon this profession likely will. While Pakistan has little power on its own to avert natural disasters, the death of agriculture is one that it can do something about. We must put the infrastructure, physical, digital and administrative, needed to protect our farms. And if dealing with the monsoons is too much, at least, one has to make sure that some other issues are addressed so that a farmer’s life during the rest of the year is sustainable. In the meantime, the government may as well make the most of the ongoing COP 30. It will not hurt at all to remind the rich countries, absent as some of their top leaders might be, that countries like Pakistan are literally starving because of their emissions. One cannot find a more just case for compensation than this.