Last month, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) -- the body that decides the formula of water sharing between the four provinces -- projected a 35 per cent water shortage for Kharif season. This season starts from April 1 every year and the demand for water rises for sowing of crops like cotton and rice. In case of water shortage, the most affected provinces are Punjab and Sindh that are more dependent on Indus water than KP and Balochistan.
Prior to the announcement, Sindh had raised the issue of reduced water availability in Kharif season. It demanded that during this period water should not be stored in dams but released to the province so that it can meet its demand. Once the announcement of expected water shortage was made, the voices coming from Sindh became louder.
However, after a couple of days a new announcement was made that put the likely water shortage to be around 18 per cent. This improvement in the situation was due to a short spell of rain that increased the level of water in dams. Earlier, the water inflows during the last two weeks of March had decreased due to dry weather and resulted in the raising of alarm by Irsa. The authority expects the water scarcity will further reduce once the temperature rises and glaciers melt, resulting in increased flow in the rivers.
Engineer Suleman Khan, Chairman, Indus Water Council, thinks the forecast about availability of sufficient water in the near future has nothing to do with the issue at hand. "Water is most useful when it is actually needed and the focus must be on ensuring its supply at that moment."
Khan says a similar situation arises every year between March 20 and April 10 when there is limited rainfall and weather is not hot enough to melt the glaciers. Sindh, he says, feels more stressed because the crops there mature almost a month earlier than in Punjab because of its much hotter weather. For the same reason, he says, the crops in Sindh are sowed earlier and therefore it needs more water than Punjab around this time. "Demand for Punjab is a bit low around this time as wheat is ready for harvest and needs to be saved from moisture."
Against this backdrop, the role of Irsa becomes crucial. The Water Accord of 1991 empowers this body to determine water availability in the country and shares of provinces twice a year, once for Kharif season and once for Rabi season.
Khan, who is a strong advocate of large dams, says, "It is strange that despite facing water scarcity during sowing season every year there is no consensus on reservoirs like Kalabagh Dam (KBD). If KBD is not acceptable to all the provinces they can at least store some water themselves within their territorial jurisdictions." He says run-off water, sufficient in volume to meet Sindh demand for sowing Kahrif crops, can be stored in Manchar Lake by building a channel. "It is a pity that last year 29 Million Acre Feet (MAF) water was lost to the sea -- a fraction of which could have been enough to tackle the current shortage."
KP and Balochistan are a bit unaffected by the shortage of water in dams and the reason for this is that they are not as dependent on Indus water as Punjab and Sindh are. The KP agriculture is largely dependent on civil canals that are fed mainly by River Swat, River Dir, River Karam etc whereas Balochistan, except its Put Feeder area, gets water for agriculture from various streams and nullahs.
In this context, the farmers of the country are quite concerned and call for sustainable measures on part of the government to address this issue for good.
Khalid Khokhar, President, Pakistan Kissan Ittehad, tells TNS that the existing water shortage will affect cotton crop as its sowing has started and it needs sufficient water at the moment. "The existing varieties of Bt cotton cannot afford stress, caused by the scarcity of water during the start of the cropping cycle. The earlier non-Bt varieties would be resilient and somehow cope with such water shortages."
Khokhar says it is unfortunate that hardly any new cotton varieties have been introduced in the country, keeping in view the local conditions and requirements. Besides, he says, no sincere efforts have been made to replace flood irrigation method with more efficient water use techniques such as sprinkler system and drip irrigation. "If these systems are introduced at a mass level, water shortages during any time of the year can be managed to a certain level."
Khokhar suggests building of reservoirs and storage of unused water that flows into the sea in a huge quantity. He says if there is no consensus on building of large dams, several small reservoirs can be made by different provinces according to their own water demands. "The provinces with higher demand can have more reservoirs than those with lesser demand."
He laments the research budget for agriculture sector remains unused. A proof of which, he says, is that the Secretary Agriculture Punjab has returned unused funds worth Rs9 billion to the provincial government. Similarly, he says, the government has failed to discourage sowing of water guzzling crops like sugarcane and promote those that consume less water.
Though a law introduced in 1960s prohibited setting up of sugar mills beyond Pattoki in South Punjab, one finds many of them being set up in this region known for producing cotton. With the establishment of these mills, the crop sowing patterns have changed to a great extent and farmers have to choose between cotton and sugarcane.