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he iconic green fields of the Punjab, once the heartland of Pakistan’s cotton economy, face a silent crisis. While official narratives may not acknowledge a decline in cotton research, a closer look reveals dangerous stagnation. The conventional breeding methods are underperforming. The global race of agricultural innovation has evolved and give its outdate tools Pakistan’s research community is ill-equipped to do well in it.
At the heart of the crisis lies a severe lack of genetic diversity in our current cotton breeding material. The widespread adoption of Bt gene technology, while initially promising, has led to the contamination and loss of our non-Bt germplasm. Scientists are now struggling to differentiate between single, double and non-transgenic varieties. Years of cross-pollination have muddled the genetic lines. This genetic soup makes it nearly impossible to identify and utilise the foundational material necessary for developing resilient new varieties. The situation is further complicated by a lack of a comprehensive, centralised database of cotton germplasm. Without this vital resource, breeders are working in the dark, unable to assess the genetic potential of existing materials. This is a critical barrier to progress, as it hampers the development of new varieties that can withstand the increasing pressures of climate change.
The challenges extend far beyond the germplasm bank. Researchers, the foot soldiers in this battle, are facing immense difficulties. They are operating on outdated infrastructure and struggling with a severe lack of funding. Many are forced to finance their research and publications. This saps morale and creativity. The toxic environment is pushing the most talented scientists to seek opportunities abroad, leading to a brain drain that further reduces our research capacity. The rest of the world has moved beyond basic Bt and GT genes. Leading labs are now harnessing the power of modern genetic techniques to create crops that can withstand the existential threats of climate change: heat and drought.
A recent international webinar, hosted by this author, brought this disparity into sharp focus. Dr Hong Zhang, a professor at Texas Tech University, showcased his lab’s breakthrough research. Through the over-expression of just two genes, his team has developed cotton varieties that produce a staggering 133 percent more fiber in dry land conditions and nearly 81percent more in wet conditions.
The root cause of stagnation in cotton research is a systemic failure to support and empower our researchers. The Higher Education Commission and other funding bodies do not make it easy for public sector researchers. Those who manage to secure scholarships abroad and learn world-class techniques are often discouraged to return. Many fear that their contributions will be met with resistance or made irrelevant by a lack of basic infrastructure. This author can speak from experience. A postdoctoral proposal focused on gene editing to combat the Cotton Leaf Curl Virus—a disease responsible for a million-bale loss annually in Pakistan—was meticulously crafted with the help of a professor from a top-ranked university. The professor, on evaluation by our internal system, was given a shocking score of 2 out of 10 for his ability to supervise. The demoralisation experienced by the expert is the reality faced by most Pakistani public sector scientists. Scholarships are often given to university professionals with limited participation in public research. The policy landscape is equally fragmented.
The country’s agricultural research and development spending is lagging behind regional peers. Over the last decade, it fell from 0.37 percent to a mere 0.12 percent.
The shift of crop land from cotton to sugarcane, driven by mill owners offering subsidies to the local farmers, is disrupting crop zoning and shrinking the core cotton-growing area. This not only reduces the overall cotton output but also intensifies the disease and pest pressure on the remaining fields. Furthermore, the introduction of unapproved public sector varieties, due to gene patent issues and premature leak, has fuelled a thriving seed mafia. Farmers, lured by the promise of these new varieties, unknowingly purchase low-quality seed from unreliable sources. This leads to poor crop stands and a host of other problems, including the CLCV.
To escape this downward spiral, we must embrace a multi-pronged approach that addresses the systemic failures plaguing the industry. The first and most critical step is to re-evaluate and reorganise our genetic material. We need a concerted effort to identify and isolate pure non-Bt germplasm before it is completely lost. Simultaneously, a comprehensive, publicly accessible database of all cotton germplasm must be established. This will provide researchers with the tools they need to conduct meaningful and impactful breeding programs and establish collaborations. Moreover, the current reliance on Bt technology is a short-term fix with long-term consequences. Pests are developing resistance to these genes. We risk a future where all our GMO cotton will be susceptible. We need to adopt a robust integrated pest management model, similar to the one implemented in California, which led to the certified eradication of the pink bollworm in 2018. The pest had prevailed since 1906 in the US cotton belt. This strategy, which blends biological, cultural and chemical controls with the help of the public and private sectors as well as farmers, provides a lasting solution instead of relying too heavily on a single gene.
We are now in a full-spectrum combat against climate change. Food security is as critical as border security. A scientist is as valuable therefore as a soldier. Lack of access to latest training and equipment is a dangerous vulnerability. The great Dr Bajwa of the 1970s, a wheat researcher from Ayub Agricultural Research Institute, worked alongside Dr Norman Borlaug to lay the foundation of the Green Revolution. Today, we have many Dr Bajwas among us, but we are not exploiting their potential. Instead of providing them with the resources and respect they deserve, we are forcing them into a system where meager salaries and allowances have driven some into the seed mafia, using public resources for personal gain. To reverse this decline, we need a paradigm shift. We must train and equip our public sector scientists and researchers with modern tools and techniques.
The country’s agricultural research and development spending is lagging behind regional peers. Over the last decade, it fell from 0.37 percent to a mere 0.12 percent. We need a better strategy for agricultural research and a focused and relentless effort to create a win-win situation for the country and its intellectual assets.
The writer is a senior researcher with nearly 20 years of service in the public sector advancing agriculture research