While political temperatures in the Parliament have somewhat lowered since the last week over debate on the national budget, after initial rumpus in the National Assembly and Senate, it is certainly on the rise outside the House.
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman has finally announced the date for much-awaited opposition's all parties conference (APC) for Wednesday, June 26, to chalk out a plan for an anti-government movement and the proposed Islamabad lockdown.
Now it depends on Prime Minister Imran Khan and his team's strategy to handle the situation with “a carrot or a stick”. With some high-profile reshuffle in the establishment, many see this development as politically significant.
Pakistan is facing some of the most serious economic challenges currently and, in the last 10 months, the government has been unable to provide any relief to people. There has been an unprecedented rise in prices and gas and electricity tariffs have been increased, for which Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Prime Minister Imran Khan blame the previous governments. He has also constituted a high-powered commission to investigate the foreign loans acquired during the past 10 years and their use, but the things did not look good on the ground.
The announcement about the APC date has been made at a critical time. PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari recently made a hard-hitting speech in Nawabshah on the birth anniversary of slain prime minister Benazir Bhutto and vowed to overthrow the government. On the other hand, PML-N leader Maryam Nawaz looked in a defiant mood with her first formal press conference since long and surprised many with her criticism of the government, establishment and a clear dissent against her own party president Shahbaz Sharif. This also indicated that 'all is not well’ in the PML-N.
These two developments have further increased political heat in an already uncertain situation and it will be a real test for the prime minister, his interior minister Brig ((retd) Ejaz Shah. How things will shape up in the next one or two months would be of political significance.
Opposition sources said the APC would not only release a 'Declaration' but also short-term and long-term strategies before the final 'march on Islamabad’. One has to wait and see whether the APC would be converted into any formal grand opposition alliance or constitute a committee for the movement.
The APC has been called few days before the debate on budget would conclude and the finance bill would be put for vote in the assembly. The conference will also work out a strategy whether to get the budget passed or go for voting. At present, the government may not face much difficulty in getting it passed, particularly after prime minister personally engaged all the coalition parties and accepted their respective demands, including giving one ministry each to the MQM-P and the PML-Q.
However, he is still finding some difficulties in handling the six-points of the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M). Opposition's only hope to block the budget depends on division within the PTI-led ruling coalition.
Maulana Fazlur Rehman has called the APC after taking all the opposition leaders into confidence including former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who is serving seven-year imprisonment at Kot Lakhpat jail currently.
The BNP-M is still undecided about attending the APC, but the Maulana did held an important meeting with its leader, Sardar Akhtar Mengal few days back and the latter put certain conditions for his party's support.
Political temperatures rose after the opposition staged a protest during the budget speech in the presence of Prime Minister Imran Khan, who showed his strong anger and issued directive to his party's MNAs not to allow leader of the opposition Shahbaz Sharif to speak.
Situation further aggravated after former president Asif Ali Zardari was arrested by NAB, and National Assembly Speaker Asad Qaiser came under pressure, reportedly from the PM not to issue the production order for Zardari and PML-N leader Khwaja Saad Rafiq.
Later on, the premier softened his stance on the advice of some saner voices within the PTI, and the government and the opposition reached an understanding that no one would create rumpus during the speech of any member, whether from the government or the opposition.
But, the production order of two MNAs from tribal areas, who belong to the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), Mohsin Dawar and Ali Wazir, were not issued and the opposition also did not raise much voice on it, except for Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari.
Now, whether the JUI-F would invite the PTM to the APC or not is yet not clear, as the two sides have political differences as well and the Supreme Court has taken up a petition of the JUI-F defeated candidate in 2018 against Mohsin Dawar.
The APC is also being held at a time when elections in tribal areas, which were earlier postponed, would be held on July 21, and Asif Ali Zardari has expressed his reservations over the presence of law-enforcement agencies inside the polling stations.
Those who will attend the APC include high powered delegation from the PPP, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, PML-N led by Shahbaz Sharif and would include Maryam Nawaz as the latter knows her absence would be felt, JI Ameer Sirajul Haq, ANP's Asfandyar Wali, National Party’s Hasil Bizenjo and others.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang. Twitter: MazharAbbasGEO