Wars bring instability and destruction to entire regions. Pakistan has been suffering for the past three decades due to the Afghan war in the shape of terrorism, influx of refugees and economic turmoil. The main cause behind the instability in Afghanistan is the involvement of neighbouring states and world powers.
Considering the past experiences, the Pakistan government is cautious on such accounts. The recent tension between Iran and the US has created alarm bells for the entire region. Prime Minister Imran Khan warned against the risk of conflict in the region, following a visit to Pakistan by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif as tensions between US and Iran escalated.
The tensions started rising when in May 2018, US President Donald Trump announced that his country would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, throwing the region into turmoil.
On April 22, President Donald Trump decided not to “reissue Significant Reductions Exceptions (SREs)” on Iranian oil exports to eight countries, namely China, India, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Greece, Italy and Taiwan, when they expired on May 02 in order to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero and “deny the regime its principal source of revenue.” In April, the US also dispatched the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln to the Gulf region.
On May 08, the first anniversary of the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced in a televised address to the nation that the Supreme National Security Council, which he heads, had decided to suspend some of its commitments under the JCPOA toward “safeguarding the Iranian nation’s security and interests.” The decision of the SNSC has been notified to the five remaining signatories of the JCPOA.
On May 10, 2019, the US Department of Defense announced that it was sending the USS Arlington and a Patriot battery to Central Command for deployment in the Persian Gulf. The movement of USS Arlington, an amphibious warship, has bolstered the existing US naval presence in the region and raised fears that the US might be preparing for use of force against Iran.
The Trump government now applies comprehensive sanctions to apply “maximum pressure” on Iran to curb its nuclear, missile and regional military activities, and compel it to seek renewed negotiations with the Trump administration. This has created significant economic troubles for the country. There is a decline in state revenues, drop in economic growth and loss of jobs. On May 11, President Rouhani compared the current situation to the conditions that prevailed during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.
Meanwhile, the New York Times has reported the White House was reviewing military plans that could result in sending 120,000 US troops to the Middle East if Iran attacked American forces or stepped up work on nuclear weapons. President Trump said it was fake news, but that he would absolutely be willing to send troops if necessary. On the other hand, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that “no one is seeking war.”
In a move connected to the tensions, the US Embassy in Baghdad has ordered all nonessential government staff to leave Iraq while The Netherlands and Germany have suspended their training of Iraqi forces.
Japanese Prime Ministe Shinzo Abe recently visited Tehran to warn that an “accidental conflict” could be sparked amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington.
Iran has distanced itself from the bombings of oil tankers yet the US blames it for sabotage, sparking concerns about the risks of conflict in a volatile region.
On the other hand, Pakistan has urged the United States and Iran to exhibit "restraint" and resolve the issues that have increased the tensions between them through negotiations. Foreign Office Spokesperson Dr Mohammad Faisal has termed the recent developments in the Persian Gulf as "disturbing". He said Washington's decision to deploy an aircraft carrier and B-52 bombers to the Gulf has added to the tension and the existing precarious security situation in the Middle East. "Any miscalculated move can transmute into a large scale conflict," the FO spokesperson was quoted as saying.
The US troops are still in Afghanistan and this development will further escalate the situation. Another US war in the Middle East would be catastrophic for the region, which is still suffering from the aftermath of the Iraq war. If US imposes war on Iran, Pakistan will also suffer being the neighbour and might face an ugly situation. As it shares a long border with Iran, a US-Iran conflict could have direct spillover effects for Pakistan.