LAHORE: Like different parts of country, stage is set for by-polls in the provincial capital on two National Assembly and two Provincial Assembly seats where the PTI this time will face joint candidates of PML-N and PPP today (Sunday).
As both PML-N and PPP have decided to support each other in the by-polls, a tough contest is expected in three out of the total four vacant seats of Lahore. In NA-124, the seat vacated by PML-N leader Hamza Shahbaz, former prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi is contesting on the symbol of Tiger and seems to be in a comfortable position to secure a win. The other three seats are NA-131 vacated by Prime Minister Imran Khan and PP-164 and PP-165 vacated by detained Leader of the Opposition in National Assembly Shahbaz Sharif.
Three of the four seats – NA-124, PP-164 and PP-165 – for which by-elections are being held, were won by the PML-N in the general elections. It lost NA-131 but with a margin of merely 600 votes.
In the province of Punjab where, like Centre, the PTI has formed government for the first time, by-elections are scheduled on 21 seats, including eight National Assembly and 13 provincial assembly seats.
In the federal capital, by-poll is to be held in NA-53, vacated by Imran.
The seats for which by-polls will take place are: NA-53 Islamabad, NA-56 (Attock), NA-60 and NA-63, Rawalpindi, NA-65 Chakwal, NA-69 (Gujrat), NA-103 (Faisalabad), NA-124 and NA-131 Lahore, PP-3 (Attock), PP-27 (Jhelum), PP-87 (Mianwali), PP-103 Faisalabad, PP-118 Toba Tek Singh, PP-164 and PP-165 Lahore, PP-201 Sahiwal, PP-222 Multan, PP-272 Muzaffargarh, PP-292 DG Khan and PP-296 Rajanpur.
The PTI, despite being in power in Centre and Punjab, will now have to go an extra mile to defeat the PML-N in by elections in Lahore after a dramatic turn in the situation followed by the release of Nawaz Sharif.
NA-124: The PML-N at present is in a comfortable position in NA-124, which was won by Hamza with a margin of over 60, 000. He bagged 146, 000 votes followed by around 81000 of PTI’s Nauman Qaiser. Now in the by-poll, Abbasi is being tested by PTI’s Ghulam Mohiuddin Diwan who is a sitting MLA of Azad Jammu Kashmir Legislative Assembly.
The PPP had awarded ticket to former party ticket holder Shehbaz Bhatti, but its tiny vote bank will also go favour of Abbasi after the understanding with the Nawaz League candidate.
The constituency can rightly be called base camp of PML-N where no candidate having the support of Nawaz has suffered defeat in last three decades. Even Nawaz himself got elected from most of the areas falling in present NA-124 when it was NA-92 in 1993. Similarly, Shahbaz consecutively won in 1990, 1993 and 1997 from most of the areas that fall in the present NA-124 while it was NA-96.
Same is the case with Hamza who won consecutively from this seat in the elections held in 2008, 2013 and 2018. From the present NA-124 areas, brother of Nawaz and Shahbaz, late Abbas Sharif also won in 1993 by-polls from the then NA-92.
The densely-populated areas which fall in present NA-124 are Shadbagh, Misri Shah, Sultanpura, Faizbagh, entire walled city including Delhi, Bhaati, Mochi, Sheranwala, Lohari, Masti, Mohri gates, Mcleoad Road, Qila Gujjar Singh and areas located around Lahore Railway Station.
NA-131: This constituency has become the epicentre with all eyes on it after it was vacated by Imran who defeated PML-N’s Khawaja Saad Rafique after a very tough contest on July 25.
The major developments that have taken place since July 25 include the death of Begum Kulsoom Nawaz, bail granted to Nawaz and the arrest of Shahbaz. Besides, the criticism on PTI government particularly over its economic policies could also add to its challenges in the by-poll. The PML-N voter in the constituency seems more charged and with the additional support of PPP, whose vote bank here is comparatively higher than other seats of urban Lahore, an upset couldn’t be ruled out.
Only one time in the history of Lahore, it has happened that a party suffered defeat on the seat vacated by a prime minister. It was 1988 when Benazir Bhutto after winning the NA-94 seat vacated it, but the PPP lost the by-poll as Mian Umar Hayat of IJI proved the winner.
Humayun Akhter Khan – previously elected as MNA in 1990, 1993, 1997 and 2002 and also served as federal minister – is the PTI candidate from this seat. He was defeated by Saad in the 2008 general elections from the same seat when it was designated as NA-125. He joined the PTI just a few days before the July 25 elections. He has also run a very vibrant campaign and his supporters are hopeful that the PTI would retain the seat.
The areas falling under this constituency are DHA, Cantt, Walton, some parts of Chungi Amar Sidhu and the many other adjoining densely-populated localities.
This is noteworthy that the elections on this seat have mostly been controversial. In 2002, Humayun won after defeating Akram Zaki and Naveed Chaudhry after a very close contest and both PML-N and PPP rejected the results. In 2013, Saad overcame Hamid Khan but the result was viewed as controversial by the PTI. In 2018, Imran won from here, whereas the PML-N candidates won from both the provincial seats. The PML-N also levelled allegations of rigging against PTI which, according to it, was reluctant for recounting.
PP-164: This seat comprises of rural areas like Barki, Hadyara and dozens of other villages where the biradari factor has always been quite significant. This seat was won by Shahbaz who retained the National Assembly seat. Now for the by poll, the PML-N has awarded ticket to former MNA Sohail Shaukat Butt who has been challenged by PTI’s Mohammed Yusuf. The PPP, which has a noticeable vote bank in this area, owing to the support of major groups like Ghurki and Mayos have a key role to play in case of a tough contest between PML-N and PTI.
In this constituency, the PPP candidate Tahir Mayo and his group have withdrawn from the election race but quite contrary to their party line, they are supporting PTI candidate Mohammed Yusuf. The local PPP elders from this constituency, by no means, are willing to vote for Butt and the PML-N is facing a test here. Nevertheless, the development narrative of PML-N and current wave of sympathy for Sharifs could benefit the PML-N.
PP-165: The PML-N has fielded Malik Saif-ul-Malook Khokhar who has been challenged by a local noted figure and three-time MPA Mansha Sandhu. This constituency too is mainly rural and was vacated by Shahbaz.
Mansha won from this area in 1993, 1997 and 2002 polls and with the complete support of the ruling party, his position is also dubbed strong by the locals. On the other hand, PML-N has also run a very active campaign and it believes that it would defend the seat.