As we enter into the final round of Election-2018, following the release of the final list of candidates, political parties have geared up their election campaign amid allegations of ‘pre-poll engineering’ from former ruling party, PML-N and its allies while the PTI and its chairman Imran Khan is confident of victory on July 25.
Violent beginning of a final round could trigger more violence, if not checked. The violent incident Sunday in Lyari during the rally of PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto, who is also a candidate and some incidents in Punjab and in other constituencies have already, ‘alerted’ security agencies. While in some constituencies people are genuinely making candidates accountable with serious questions, there are also reports that this trend was also being exploited by rival parties against each other to gain publicity.
On the other hand, campaign would be hectic as well as aggressive particularly between the PML-N and the PTI.
With reports that PML-N Quaid Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz are returning this week, has further generated heat in already heated campaign.
Imran Khan, who has already announced his countrywide rally and public meetings schedule, launched the campaign on a very aggressive tone, targeting three main parties: PML-N, PPP and JUI-F.
If somehow the other they did not return it would be a colossal loss to the PML-N in the elections. Shahbaz Sharif’s narrative could be good and acceptable in close quarters but its NS’s narrative which the party believe more salable among its supporters and voters.
There has been sudden increase in defection of the PML-N leaders including candidates who are returning party tickets and deciding to contest as independent candidates instead of joining the PTI. The move will help the PTI as it will divide the PML-N vote bank.
This apparently is a new tactics as by joining other party was not hurting the PML-N vote bank. Whether it’s a coincidence or not but some of the independent candidates of the PML-N dissidents have got an identical election symbol ie Jeep, after it was acquired by Ch Nisar Ali Khan.
The PML-N, which is facing multiple problems and challenges ever since former premier Nawaz Sharif was disqualified about a year ago on July 28, 2017, is now under immense pressure and finding it difficult to retain its ‘vote bank’ and candidates. ‘Father and daughter’ are likely to take a route to aggressive politics for countering Imran Khan’s aggression. So, will Shahbaz be a mere spectator in between or will continue his campaign on the basis of his government’s uplift work in Punjab. He is also facing some tough inquires and already summoned by the NAB on July 5 for questioning in a graft case.
Although Shahbaz has launched his campaign from Karachi, and remained very busy during his two days stay in the port city, but did not address any major rally Sunday.
Nawaz and Maryam are returning at a time when on the one hand Begum Kulsoom Nawaz is critically ill in London, and on the other on their return they will be facing the possible verdict of the NAB court by mid July. There are also some reports which suggest that their names would be put on ECL as soon as they return amid reports of NAB judgment. The ECP has also summoned Nawaz Sharif on July 9 in connection with a petition challenging the status of the PML-N registration after NS disqualification. The petitioner has pleaded that the party could not be registered as PML-Nawaz after disqualification and required fresh registration.
On the one hand, the PML-N facing disqualification, conviction, inquiries and defection and on other as a result of leadership’s mishandling, many senior party leaders have quit or sidelined themselves from the mainstream. Case of Ch Nisar, is a classical example of ‘poor handling’ and none other than Shahbaz looked most disturbed the way Nisar was ousted. But the PML-N problems did not end there as they received another major setback when one of Nawaz’s trusted allies Sardar Mehtab Khan Abbasi and his family returned party tickets and decided not to contest.
His withdrawal will badly hurt the party in KP. It was also strange the way party decided not to give ticket to veteran Javed Hashmi, particularly at a time when the PML-N was already facing a dilemma in South Punjab.
After Nawaz disqualification, situation started deteriorating for the PML-N, and what happened in Balochistan prior to Senate elections and during Senate polls also raised questions of ‘outside’ interference and ‘political engineering’.
It was followed by developments in South Punjab and suddenly a group called ‘Subha Janoobi Punjab Mahaz’ surfaced. Some of those persons who are part of this ‘mahaz’ have constituencies of their own and are called ‘electables’.
The PML-N was further damaged with the departure of strong party leader Ch Abdul Ghafoor and once party’s spokesman Zaeem Qadri.
While some events took place when elections were not even announced but differences within the party came to surface during first phase of elections with the process of nominations. The first phase had also exposed internal rifts and defections in other mainstream parties like the PTI and the PPP as well.
While the PTI faced this problem in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PPP in Punjab and Sindh, the MQM-P in Karachi and Hyderabad, and the MMA in KP. Two clear groups clearly emerged within the PTI, one led by Shah Mahmood Qureshi and other by Jehangir Tareen, the two key office-bearers of the party after Imran Khan. Had JT not been disqualified and his son had not withdrawn, he would have been in the driving seat. SMQ apparently succeeded in convincing IK that since JT is not in the race and could not campaign, his ‘men’ should not get an upper hand.
In KP too, Imran was facing internal difficulties because of complete hold of former chief minister Pervez Khattak. The PTI was left with no other choice but to give 90 percent of seats on PK’s recommendations and his anti-group was left with no other option but to accept it.
While IK’s close team comprises Jehangir Tareen, Pervaiz Khattak and Aleem Khan; Shah Mahmood is now trying to strengthen his grip in the party particularly in Punjab and Sindh. It may also not be a simple ‘walkover’ for the PPP in Sindh. If it managed four to five seats in Punjab and around 36 to 38 in Sindh, which will not be easy this time, Zardari will be more than happy. Like the PML-N and the PTI, many party leaders had quit the PPP, and joined hands with opposition or providing silent support to anti-PPP camps.
Therefore, it would not be an easy ‘final round’ for Shahbaz Sharif and the PML-N. While the NAB certainly looked in a hurry to meet some kind of deadline, the PML-N leaders also have to blame themselves for their failure in resolving internal rifts and unable to evolve one ‘narrative’ either of Nawaz or Shahbaz, which ever can turn the tables in favour of the party. Election is a democratic and the only way to bring change and also exposes lawmakers who fail in fulfilling their promises five years ago. For the first time political parties and their nominees are facing difficulties in their respective constituencies. One may witness more such incidents in the ‘final round’ but it should not be used in settling personal scores.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.
Twitter: MazharAbbasGEO