As far back as last July, when the Supreme Court disqualified Nawaz Sharif from holding public office, there were predictions that the PML-N would suffer mass defections. Although this didn’t come to pass at that time, with general elections now around the corner, there appears to be a renewed effort to weaken the ruling party. The defection of eight PML-N members, who announced this that they will be forming a new party dedicated to the creation of a new South Punjab province, comes after three other party members left for the PTI in the past few weeks. Rumours are swirling that a visibly disgruntled Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan could be next. Such swirl of activity is common in the run-up to an election, especially when many can sense a change in the tide. As always, the question is whether the defections came about naturally because the PML-N members were unhappy at the direction the party was taking or if they were induced to do so. The experience in Balochistan, where the PML-N backed chief minister was ousted and in the Senate elections, where the PML-N candidates were forced to run as independents and many of them didn’t vote for the party’s candidate for Senate chairman, hints at the latter.
As much as we would like free and fair elections that represent the will of the people, it seems the coming elections could well be anything but. Interestingly, the defectors from the PML-N who are now claiming to be the voice for southern Punjab have no record of ever having taken any noteworthy interest in that region previously. Nawaz Sharif dismissed the eight men as unimportant in the party and hinted that they had been part of an engineering effort. In contrast, Shahbaz Sharif issued a statement instructing members of the party not to say anything about the defectors. How the PML-N deals with this challenge will have a large bearing on its electoral fortunes. The party is clearly facing pressure from outside and seems unsure of how best to respond to it. Its greatest task now will be preventing further defections before the elections. Should PML-N members feel the tide is turning against the party, they could be tempted to jump ship too. While it is hardly unexpected that ambitious politicians will be naturally attracted to power, what is dangerous is the element of perceived interference. Once an impression is created that the process is being manipulated before polls are even held, the only outcome is a loss of faith in democracy.