The contours of the changed relationship between Pakistan and the US are becoming clearer after a report by the US Special Inspector General Afghanistan Reconstruction put a number on the aid expected to be held by the Trump administration. It anticipates that at least $350 million in Coalition Support Fund reimbursements will be suspended until the US State Department certifies that Pakistan is taking sufficient action against the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network. The statements of Trump and his cabinet members have made it clear that this certification will not be forthcoming for the foreseeable future. Even more worrying is the very real possibility of relations becoming worse soon. The new terms of engagement for US forces in Afghanistan will give commanders in the field the authority to deal with alleged militant safe havens inside Pakistan. While it is likely this will be restricted to the drone attacks the US is already carrying out, previously such attacks would be ordered from Washington. Expanding the circle of figures who are authorised to launch drone attacks means there could be a probable increase in such attacks. The broad nature of the terms of engagement also leads to worries that the US may send troops into Pakistan, something that would be unacceptable and could be the final straw in our troubled relationship with the US.
At the same time, the US is trying to leave a small window of cooperation with Pakistan. Speaking in Dubai on Friday, US Central Command Chief General Joseph Votel said Pakistan is still an important ally of the US and recognised the sacrifices the country has made in fighting the war against militancy. There have also been reports in recent days of the Afghan government beginning talks with the Afghan Taliban. The US, if it hasn’t already realised it, will eventually come to the conclusion that the only way to end the war in Afghanistan is by reaching some sort of peace agreement with the Taliban, because a few thousand extra troops will not be sufficient to defeat the Taliban insurgency. And that is where the US will need Pakistan to facilitate talks. As poor as relations are between the two countries right now, there is a slight hope that the US will have to recognise that we need to work together to reach shared goals in Afghanistan. Until such a time comes, however, there is little hope for short-term improvements as long as the US continues to use antagonistic language and actions.