The PPP is fast losing space at the national level and if they lose the key slot of leader of the opposition in the wake of recent accord between MQM-Pakistan and PTI, it will be a major setback to the party which once had been the only national party in its true sense.
The PPP may find it a bit difficult to win in the number game, as some other opposition parties may also prefer PTI over PPP amid the political developments unfolding day-by-day.
If PTI manages to get the top opposition slot in the National Assembly, it has agreed to accommodate MQM in many ways at the national level and would also seek its consent during the formation of future interim government.
What happened in the Senate during the amendment, which the PML-N managed to carry despite the opposition majority in the House, shocked the opposition and created cracks in their rank and file with at least eight opposition senators facing show-cause from their respective parties and Senator Mian Atiq’s basic membership of MQM suspended.
The PTI's visit to MQM-Pakistan’s makeshift office is a major moral and political boost for them in the post-August 23, 2016 MQM. After the PML-N, the PTI too has recognised them as a genuine representative party after it distanced itself from the MQM-London.
For the PTI, the accord can ease the tension between the two as it is also struggling in Sindh, particularly Karachi and Hyderabad. Whether it would convert into an electoral alliance in 2018 is still a remote possibility but the PTI-MQM accord could be effective in the post-2018 elections in case of a ‘hung Parliament’.
This accord may also help the MQM in getting a strong voice of Imran Khan on issues like the local government powers, police reforms, census and more administrative units in Pakistan.
The PTI recently supported MQM's land reforms bill in the National Assembly and the MQM Rabita Committee considered it as a force with urban outlook and a potential partner.
While PPP and MQM for the past three decades always had a 'love and hate' relationship, both failed to accept each other and see each other as not part of the solution but part of the problem.
The high-powered PTI delegation’s visit also paved the way for a most likely meeting between the MQM-P high command and Imran Khan after the election of opposition leader.
The PTI-MQM duo is likely to get the support of Awami Muslim League and may be some others too. Both have also worked on the number game and are confident that unless Speaker Ayaz Sadiq does not face pressure from the PML-N, it may not be difficult for them to oust Shah.
The veteran PPP leader from Sukkur is a very seasoned politician. During the nomination of opposition leader in 2013, he had even faced problems within his own party as certain top PPP leaders were not in his favour, but he managed to bag the slot. His performance had not been bad as opposition leader, both because of his style of politics and soft nature.
But politics is a cruel game and Imran Khan and PTI know that there is every possibility that Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif can reach an understanding before the next elections over the NAB chairman, interim setup and composition of Election Commission of Pakistan.
The PTI found a natural partner in MQM-P when it comes to ousting the leader of opposition and getting their own choice before the elections.
In the next two weeks, the opposition parties are likely to move the Speaker against Shah and it is also possible that Shah may himself step down.
With PML-Q and Jamaat-e-Islami also looking towards an alliance with PTI in Punjab, they may support the PTI nominee and the final decision of all the opposition parties minus PPP and ANP (which may still go with PPP), the number game is certainly against Shah.
It would be interesting to see whether this accord would sustain beyond getting a new opposition or not, but both parties have common points to agree upon for the next elections as well, particularly in Sindh.
Even if they do not reach consensus in Karachi, there is every possibility of seat adjustment in Hyderabad, Sukkur, Mirpurkhas and other cities of Sindh between the two.
It is true that if the PPP manages to retain the slot, it may not be a good news for MQM, as political tension is likely to intensify before elections and the Sindh government may further curtail the powers of local government.
The PML-N may also not like to see PTI’s or a PTI-backed as leader of the opposition, someone like Sheikh Rasheed in particular. Though Shah Mahmood Qureshi is the most likely choice, PTI’s leader of the opposition would be difficult for former PM Nawaz Sharif to digest and that is where the PPP would like him to use his Speaker.
Irrespective who wins or loses, things are not going well for the PPP at the moment. Although Asif Zardari’s first task is to ensure that this government is removed before March 2018, the PML-N is apparently set to complete its term, meaning it may get majority in the Senate.
Back-to-back defeat in by-elections at is also causing frustration among the party veterans who still believe that either before 2018 or after 2018, Asif Zardari has to take a decision as how to run the party and about his own future.
Pakistan's political scene is fast changing, particularly after Nawaz Sharif defiant posture, and no one knows which way the political will go and reshape before 2018.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.
Twitter: MazharAbbasGEO